What changes for America's workers
Not whether jobs go, but which parts of the work change. For each job reviewed task by task, the site splits its working time into what stays with people (conversation, in-person and hands-on work), what becomes checking an AI model's work (desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs), and what could be handed over with lighter checks, at the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five reliability, and names the skills each job's people would learn first. Here those maps are added up, weighted by how many people do each job. Estimates, data checked October 1, 2026.
Across the US
For the 141 million people in jobs reviewed task by task so far (326 of 923 occupations).
Stays with people
64%
of their working time
Becomes checking
27%
of their working time
Handed over
8%
of their working time
What most of them would learn first
How many have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page.
- The hands-on craft68 million (48%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself51 million (36%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts40 million (29%)
- The conversations40 million (28%)
- Judgment where errors are severe38 million (27%)
- Signing off under your license16 million (11%)
- Running AI inside the business systems13 million (9%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization6.8 million (5%)
- Handling protected records712,020 (1%)
The jobs where the most working time becomes checking
By people times the share of their time that becomes checking a model's work, end of 2028. Each job page has its own map.
| Job | People | Stays | Becomes checking | Learn first |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General and Operations Managers | 3,503,020 | 47% | 45% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Registered Nurses | 3,379,720 | 60% | 36% | Judgment where errors are severe; Signing off under your license |
| Customer Service Representatives | 2,595,750 | 36% | 44% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Running AI inside the business systems |
| Accountants and Auditors | 1,449,500 | 10% | 75% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,373,680 | 10% | 77% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Running AI inside the business systems |
| Software Developers | 1,687,890 | 18% | 61% | Briefing a model and checking its drafts; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 899,580 | 7% | 84% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 961,610 | 16% | 74% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Running AI inside the business systems |
| Financial Managers | 841,710 | 17% | 79% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Management Analysts | 898,280 | 15% | 72% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Project Management Specialists | 1,066,670 | 35% | 57% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Human Resources Specialists | 912,430 | 31% | 64% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 1,436,680 | 41% | 40% | Briefing a model and checking its drafts; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 1,121,800 | 49% | 46% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 1,223,240 | 51% | 41% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Computer and Information Systems Managers | 670,570 | 22% | 62% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Lawyers | 754,500 | 40% | 52% | Briefing a model and checking its drafts; Signing off under your license |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,388,390 | 64% | 27% | The conversations; Signing off under your license |
| Computer Systems Analysts | 519,530 | 8% | 71% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 1,256,010 | 40% | 29% | Briefing a model and checking its drafts; The conversations |
By state
The same maps weighted by the people in each job in each state, largest share becoming checking first. Each state's page has its metro areas.
| State | Stays | Becomes checking | Handed over | Most would learn first (top two) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District of Columbia | 50% | 40% | 7% | Reviewing work you did not do yourself; Briefing a model and checking its drafts |
| Massachusetts | 60% | 30% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Colorado | 61% | 29% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Virginia | 61% | 29% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Maryland | 60% | 29% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Washington | 62% | 28% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| New York | 63% | 28% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Texas | 63% | 28% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| North Carolina | 63% | 28% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Georgia | 63% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Connecticut | 63% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Rhode Island | 63% | 27% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Delaware | 64% | 27% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Florida | 63% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Utah | 63% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| New Hampshire | 63% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| New Jersey | 63% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Arizona | 64% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Minnesota | 64% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| California | 64% | 27% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Illinois | 64% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Oregon | 64% | 27% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Michigan | 64% | 26% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Ohio | 64% | 26% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Alaska | 65% | 26% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Tennessee | 65% | 26% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Pennsylvania | 65% | 26% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Vermont | 65% | 26% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Nebraska | 65% | 26% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Missouri | 65% | 26% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Kansas | 65% | 26% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Montana | 65% | 26% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Maine | 66% | 25% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Oklahoma | 65% | 25% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| South Carolina | 65% | 25% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Wisconsin | 66% | 25% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Iowa | 66% | 25% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Kentucky | 66% | 25% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Alabama | 66% | 25% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Idaho | 66% | 25% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| New Mexico | 65% | 24% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Arkansas | 66% | 24% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| South Dakota | 67% | 24% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Judgment where errors are severe |
| Louisiana | 67% | 24% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Judgment where errors are severe |
| West Virginia | 67% | 24% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Judgment where errors are severe |
| Indiana | 67% | 24% | 7% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Hawaii | 67% | 24% | 8% | The hands-on craft; The conversations |
| North Dakota | 68% | 23% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Judgment where errors are severe |
| Nevada | 68% | 23% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
| Wyoming | 68% | 23% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Judgment where errors are severe |
| Mississippi | 69% | 22% | 8% | The hands-on craft; Reviewing work you did not do yourself |
How to read this
These are estimates by stated rules, from the task-by-task review and METR's measurements of the length of task AI models can finish. They say which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job, and nothing about whether or when any employer hands work over. The review is not yet complete, so the figures cover the people in reviewed jobs and move a little as it reaches more. The method page gives the rules and the sources; workforce boards and colleges can read what the regional report adds.