The record: projections, then measurements
Every data build keeps a dated snapshot of what the site projects for the length of task the best AI models can finish, on each of three paces. When METR publishes a measurement made after a snapshot's date, it is scored here against what that snapshot said, in the open, whatever the result. Snapshots are never edited.
Scored
Nothing yet. The latest measurement, Claude Mythos Preview (early), was made in April 2026, before the first snapshot of September 29, 2026. The first measurement METR publishes after that date will be scored against every snapshot below.
The register
What each snapshot projected for the length of task the best models finish at , and at beneath it, at the end of each year.
Snapshot of October 1, 2026
Latest measurement then: Claude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026.
| Pace | End of 2026 | End of 2027 | End of 2028 | End of 2029 | End of 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4 work days6.3 h | 3.4 work weeks3 work days | 3 work months2.3 work weeks | 11.6 work months2.1 work months | 3.7 work years7.9 work months | |
| 1 work week7.3 h | 1.7 work months1.3 work weeks | 1 work year2.2 work months | 7.2 work years1.3 work years | 51.5 work years9.2 work years | |
| 3.7 work days5.3 h | 1.5 work weeks1.3 work days | 3 work weeks2.7 work days | 1.4 work months1.1 work weeks | 2.8 work months2.1 work weeks |
Snapshot of September 30, 2026
Latest measurement then: Claude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026.
| Pace | End of 2026 | End of 2027 | End of 2028 | End of 2029 | End of 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4 work days6.2 h | 3.4 work weeks3 work days | 3 work months2.3 work weeks | 11.6 work months2.1 work months | 3.7 work years7.9 work months | |
| 1 work week7.3 h | 1.7 work months1.3 work weeks | 1 work year2.2 work months | 7.2 work years1.3 work years | 51.5 work years9.2 work years | |
| 3.7 work days5.3 h | 1.5 work weeks1.3 work days | 3 work weeks2.6 work days | 1.4 work months1.1 work weeks | 2.7 work months2.1 work weeks |
Snapshot of September 29, 2026
Latest measurement then: Claude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026.
| Pace | End of 2026 | End of 2027 | End of 2028 | End of 2029 | End of 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4 work days6.2 h | 3.4 work weeks3 work days | 3 work months2.3 work weeks | 11.6 work months2.1 work months | 3.7 work years7.9 work months | |
| 1 work week7.3 h | 1.7 work months1.3 work weeks | 1 work year2.2 work months | 7.2 work years1.3 work years | 51.5 work years9.2 work years | |
| 3.7 work days5.3 h | 1.5 work weeks1.3 work days | 3 work weeks2.6 work days | 1.4 work months1.1 work weeks | 2.7 work months2.1 work weeks |
The bench as a second scorer
Each worked example is one unedited attempt at one of an occupation's tasks, on constructed material, by Claude Fable 5.1, graded against a rubric written before it. Beside each, the share of that task's time the snapshot in force on the attempt's day projected within reach (long-run pace, four in five). So far 19 of 20 attempts passed and 1 passed with named fixes, on tasks the estimates had put at 86% within reach on average. One attempt per task on a constructed instance is a small sample: a pass where the projection was low, or a failure where it was high, would count against the estimate, and the examples are run again at each new model release.
| Task | Attempt | Projected within reach that day | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compare printouts with journalsBookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | October 1, 2026 | 95% | passes |
| Investigate the validity of complaintsCustomer Service Representatives | October 1, 2026 | 100% | passes |
| Recommend service improvementsCustomer Service Representatives | October 1, 2026 | 80% | passes |
| Review policy terms for coverageCustomer Service Representatives | October 1, 2026 | 100% | passes |
| Specify portions, sequences and station layoutsFirst-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | October 1, 2026 | 77% | passes |
| Read work orders or take instructionsLaborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | October 1, 2026 | 50% | passes |
| Prepare reports, letters and recordsMedical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | October 1, 2026 | 100% | passes |
| Compute, record and proofread dataOffice Clerks, General | October 1, 2026 | 95% | passes |
| Look up records to answer requestsOffice Clerks, General | October 1, 2026 | 97% | passes |
| Type and edit documentsOffice Clerks, General | October 1, 2026 | 97% | passes |
| Do proofreading, transcribing and data workReceptionists and Information Clerks | October 1, 2026 | 97% | passes |
| Modify treatment plansRegistered Nurses | October 1, 2026 | 100% | passes |
| Order and interpret diagnostic testsRegistered Nurses | October 1, 2026 | 99% | passes with named fixes |
| Keep up with promotions and policiesRetail Salespersons | October 1, 2026 | 50% | passes |
| Monitor the market and competitorsSales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | October 1, 2026 | 90% | passes |
| Use word processing and databasesSecretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | October 1, 2026 | 84% | passes |
| Write notes, letters and reportsSecretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | October 1, 2026 | 87% | passes |
| Write daily activity reportsSecurity Guards | October 1, 2026 | 100% | passes |
| Decide storage methods and locationsStockers and Order Fillers | October 1, 2026 | 80% | passes |
| Recommend disposal of excess stockStockers and Order Fillers | October 1, 2026 | 48% | passes |
How it is scored
Each data build writes a dated snapshot. For a measurement published after a snapshot's date, the snapshot's projection for that date is its anchor (today's estimated 50% task length) doubled every N days on each pace, with the 80% length at the snapshot's reliability factor. The score is log2(measured / projected): 0 is exact, +1 means the measurement came in twice as long as projected, -1 half as long. Snapshots are never edited; a change of method is a new snapshot with a dated note.
The method behind the projections is on the method page; what changed and when is on updates.