State
Arizona
3,239,430 people work in Arizona, at mean pay of $67,620 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 1.6 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 40%
- 8%
- 52%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 22%. Today's estimate: 25%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 49% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 87,020 | 67% | 120 million | $46K |
| Office Clerks, General | 52,710 | 58% | 64 million | $46K |
| Cashiers | 72,570 | 30% | 45 million | $35K |
| General and Operations Managers | 110,480 | 19% | 43 million | $95K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 23,220 | 83% | 40 million | $39K |
| Retail Salespersons | 93,920 | 20% | 39 million | $36K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 26,340 | 69% | 38 million | $73K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 22,690 | 76% | 36 million | $51K |
| Registered Nurses | 73,150 | 21% | 32 million | $100K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 31,930 | 47% | 31 million | $64K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 31,220 | 39% | 25 million | $48K |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 77,210 | 15% | 24 million | $34K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 657 smaller jobs (1,613,470 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers23 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons23 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses20 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives20 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers20 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Contact customers to respond to inquiries or to notify them of claim investigation results or any planned adjustments.Customer Service Representatives19 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Check to ensure that appropriate changes were made to resolve customers' problems.Customer Service Representatives18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers16 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers14 million hours100% of the task within reach
Metro and nonmetro areas in Arizona
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ2,375,760 people25% now, 39% by 2028
- Tucson, AZ389,630 people24% now, 38% by 2028
- Arizona nonmetropolitan area97,520 people23% now, 34% by 2028
- Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ72,300 people24% now, 34% by 2028
- Yuma, AZ68,880 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- Flagstaff, AZ66,610 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ56,490 people24% now, 34% by 2028
- Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ33,970 people24% now, 39% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works