Metro area, Arizona
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
33,970 people work in this area, at mean pay of $62,770 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 13 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 38%
- 19%
- 43%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 58% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 560 | 64% | 750,131 | $37K |
| Office Clerks, General | 570 | 54% | 643,781 | $40K |
| Detectives and Criminal Investigators | 730 | 35% | 525,369 | $108K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,040 | 23% | 493,213 | $79K |
| Cashiers | 1,150 | 19% | 442,520 | $32K |
| Retail Salespersons | 1,060 | 19% | 427,731 | $33K |
| Registered Nurses | 560 | 28% | 323,815 | $85K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 360 | 43% | 318,990 | $40K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 450 | 30% | 278,928 | $48K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 690 | 19% | 272,688 | $37K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 220 | 59% | 269,069 | $36K |
| Compliance Officers | 310 | 37% | 235,998 | $90K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 168 smaller jobs (12,100 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 84% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Prepare reports that detail investigation findings.Detectives and Criminal Investigators345,885 hours100% of the task within reach
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers181,531 hours94% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers169,090 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General142,770 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare charges or responses to charges, or information for court cases, according to formalized procedures.Detectives and Criminal Investigators137,761 hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers132,984 hours40% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons128,441 hours50% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers127,136 hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives126,742 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers120,485 hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in Arizona
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ2,375,760 people23% now, 37% by 2028
- Tucson, AZ389,630 people22% now, 36% by 2028
- Arizona nonmetropolitan area97,520 people21% now, 32% by 2028
- Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ72,300 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Yuma, AZ68,880 people21% now, 32% by 2028
- Flagstaff, AZ66,610 people21% now, 32% by 2028
- Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ56,490 people22% now, 31% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works