Metro area, Arizona
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
33,970 people work in this area, at mean pay of $62,770 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 19 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 37%
- 25%
- 38%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 24% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 28,096 people in jobs so far, 83% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 12 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 6.4 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 4.3 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 25%
- 12%
- 8%
- 17%
- 39%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 28,096 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft13,013 (46%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself10,042 (36%)
- Judgment where errors are severe8,495 (30%)
- The conversations8,338 (30%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts7,582 (27%)
- Signing off under your license3,050 (11%)
- Running AI inside the business systems2,890 (10%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization1,580 (6%)
- Handling protected records80 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 31%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 45% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 32% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 22% in a purpose-built cell, 9% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.44 of 3.
- Not physical 55%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 22%
- In a structured facility 9%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 58% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detectives and Criminal Investigators | 730 | 69% | 1.1 million | $108K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,040 | 45% | 973,447 | $79K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 560 | 64% | 750,131 | $37K |
| Office Clerks, General | 570 | 56% | 669,864 | $40K |
| Retail Salespersons | 1,060 | 23% | 507,104 | $33K |
| Cashiers | 1,150 | 19% | 442,520 | $32K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 360 | 59% | 439,548 | $40K |
| Registered Nurses | 560 | 37% | 428,648 | $85K |
| Compliance Officers | 310 | 54% | 347,550 | $90K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 290 | 54% | 328,142 | $53K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 450 | 35% | 324,792 | $48K |
| Computer User Support Specialists | 260 | 57% | 310,420 | $54K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 168 smaller jobs (12,100 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 84% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Prepare reports that detail investigation findings.Detectives and Criminal Investigators346,058 hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers169,090 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General142,770 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare charges or responses to charges, or information for court cases, according to formalized procedures.Detectives and Criminal Investigators137,780 hours100% of the task within reach
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers134,574 hours70% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers133,002 hours40% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons128,441 hours50% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers127,153 hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives126,742 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers120,485 hours100% of the task within reach
The regional report on Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 84% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in Arizona
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ2,375,760 people31% now, 37% by 2028
- Tucson, AZ389,630 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Arizona nonmetropolitan area97,520 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ72,300 people28% now, 31% by 2028
- Yuma, AZ68,880 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Flagstaff, AZ66,610 people27% now, 32% by 2028
- Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ56,490 people28% now, 31% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 31% of the paid hours in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ are within reach of AI models now and 37% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (36% to 37% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Detectives and Criminal Investigators (730 people, 69% of their time, about 1.1 million hours a year); General and Operations Managers (1,040 people, 45% of their time, about 973,440 hours a year); and Customer Service Representatives (560 people, 64% of their time, about 750,131 hours a year).
- Which tasks in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Prepare reports that detail investigation findings (Detectives and Criminal Investigators, about 346,058 hours a year); Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions (Cashiers, about 169,090 hours a year); and Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports (Office Clerks, General, about 142,770 hours a year).
- What would people working in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ learn first?
- Among the 28,096 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (13,013 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (10,042 people); and judgment where errors are severe (8,495 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 63% of their working time stays with people, 28% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 84% of its people, and 83% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.