Nonmetro area, Arizona
Arizona nonmetropolitan area
97,520 people work in this area, at mean pay of $58,550 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 52 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 31%
- 23%
- 46%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 22% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 87,712 people in jobs so far, 90% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 32 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 19 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 12 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 21%
- 11%
- 7%
- 17%
- 44%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 87,712 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft46,707 (53%)
- Judgment where errors are severe28,950 (33%)
- The conversations26,288 (30%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself25,994 (30%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts19,324 (22%)
- Signing off under your license10,032 (11%)
- Running AI inside the business systems8,670 (10%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization4,730 (5%)
- Handling protected records250 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 27%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 52% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 37% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 24% in a purpose-built cell, 12% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.51 of 3.
- Not physical 48%
- No robot shown 15%
- In a purpose-built cell 24%
- In a structured facility 12%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 56% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General and Operations Managers | 2,830 | 45% | 2.6 million | $77K |
| Office Clerks, General | 2,040 | 56% | 2.4 million | $44K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 1,310 | 59% | 1.6 million | $44K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,190 | 64% | 1.6 million | $40K |
| Registered Nurses | 1,870 | 37% | 1.4 million | $99K |
| Cashiers | 3,630 | 19% | 1.4 million | $33K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 760 | 88% | 1.4 million | $47K |
| Retail Salespersons | 2,680 | 23% | 1.3 million | $34K |
| Detectives and Criminal Investigators | 780 | 69% | 1.1 million | $108K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,410 | 35% | 1 million | $48K |
| Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 1,150 | 40% | 947,234 | $60K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 820 | 54% | 927,850 | $58K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 305 smaller jobs (40,090 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 94% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers533,738 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General510,966 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers380,314 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare reports that detail investigation findings.Detectives and Criminal Investigators369,761 hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers361,919 hours40% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers346,003 hours100% of the task within reach
- Design new equipment to aid in the repair or maintenance of machines, mechanical equipment, or building structures.Maintenance and Repair Workers, General341,560 hours70% of the task within reach
- Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers325,965 hours80% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons324,737 hours50% of the task within reach
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers321,241 hours70% of the task within reach
The regional report on Arizona nonmetropolitan area
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 94% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in Arizona
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ2,375,760 people31% now, 37% by 2028
- Tucson, AZ389,630 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ72,300 people28% now, 31% by 2028
- Yuma, AZ68,880 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Flagstaff, AZ66,610 people27% now, 32% by 2028
- Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ56,490 people28% now, 31% by 2028
- Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ33,970 people31% now, 37% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in Arizona nonmetropolitan area is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 27% of the paid hours in Arizona nonmetropolitan area are within reach of AI models now and 31% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (30% to 31% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Arizona nonmetropolitan area carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): General and Operations Managers (2,830 people, 45% of their time, about 2.6 million hours a year); Office Clerks, General (2,040 people, 56% of their time, about 2.4 million hours a year); and Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive (1,310 people, 59% of their time, about 1.6 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Arizona nonmetropolitan area carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions (Cashiers, about 533,738 hours a year); Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports (Office Clerks, General, about 510,966 hours a year); and Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records (Cashiers, about 380,314 hours a year).
- What would people working in Arizona nonmetropolitan area learn first?
- Among the 87,712 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (46,707 people); judgment where errors are severe (28,950 people); and the conversations (26,288 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 68% of their working time stays with people, 23% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Arizona nonmetropolitan area (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 94% of its people, and 90% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.