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Detectives and Criminal Investigators

Conduct investigations related to suspected violations of federal, state, or local laws to prevent or solve crimes.

114,430 people do this job in the US. $93,790 a year.

now
34%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 67%
  • 2%
  • 31%
4%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 67% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 25%. Today's estimate: 35%.

0%10%20%30%40%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 2% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 3% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 3% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 5% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 6% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 25% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 35% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 30 tasks from .

TaskKind
Prepare reports that detail investigation findings.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.23%3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h32%Half by Jan 2027
Prepare charges or responses to charges, or information for court cases, according to formalized procedures.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 9%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h46%Half by Oct 2026
Obtain and verify evidence by interviewing and observing suspects and witnesses or by analyzing records.Done daily by most who do it. 9%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work daysStays with people
Record progress of investigation, maintain informational files on suspects, and submit reports to commanding officer or magistrate to authorize warrants.Done daily by most who do it. 6%1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h57%Half by now
Analyze completed police reports to determine what additional information and investigative work is needed.Done daily by most who do it. 6%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h65%Half by now
Determine scope, timing, and direction of investigations.Done daily by most who do it. 6%1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h87%Half by now
Identify case issues and evidence needed, based on analysis of charges, complaints, or allegations of law violations.Done daily by most who do it. 6%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h65%Half by now
Examine records to locate links in chains of evidence or information.Done daily by most who do it. 5%1.7 h25 min to 6.7 h43%Half by Nov 2026
Maintain surveillance of establishments to obtain identifying information on suspects.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 5%5 h1.7 h to 1.3 work daysStays with people
Examine records and governmental agency files to find identifying data about suspects.Done daily by most who do it. 5%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h77%Half by now
Preserve, process, and analyze items of evidence obtained from crime scenes and suspects, placing them in proper containers and destroying evidence no longer needed.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 3%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Obtain facts or statements from complainants, witnesses, and accused persons and record interviews, using recording device.Done daily by most who do it. 3%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.