First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives
In short: today's best AI models could do about 44% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 53% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 47% of the time, stays with people.
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of members of police force.
154,610 people do this job in the US. $106,040 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on3 h
- A person checks AI's work14 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet4 h
- Stays with people19 h
First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 3 hours, 14 hours become checking its work, 4 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 19 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Keep logs and direct records (about 4 h, a person checks); Supervise criminal investigations (about 3 h, a person checks); Prepare schedules and assign duties (about 3 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 41%
- 12%
- 3%
- 36%
- 8%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 44% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 44%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.021% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 310th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 20 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.018% to 0.0023% (released February and March 2025); 0.0078% to 0.011% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.023% to 0.021% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.018% | 457 of 708 | 5 of 20 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0023% | 648 of 703 | 1 of 20 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0078% | 484 of 655 | 3 of 20 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.011% | 472 of 672 | 4 of 20 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.011% | 485 of 677 | 3 of 20 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.023% | 302 of 434 | 2 of 20 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.021% | 310 of 447 | 2 of 20 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 7% of this job's working time as physical work. For 3% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 3% in a purpose-built cell. 0.03 of 3, the 612th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 93%
- No robot shown 3%
- In a purpose-built cell 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
46% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Supervise criminal investigations, the in-person work, 12%
- Conduct raids and order detentions, the hands-on work, 8%
- Train officers in procedures, the in-person work, 5%
- Explain operations to officers, the in-person work, 4%
- Evaluate officers and authorize promotions, the in-person work, 4%
- Cooperate with courts and testify, the in-person work, 3%
What becomes checking the machine
44% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 8% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Supervise criminal investigations, a licensed person signs, 12%
- Keep logs and direct records, severe if wrong, 10%
- Prepare and manage the budget, costly if wrong, 6%
- Evaluate officers and authorize promotions, costly if wrong, 6%
- Develop department policies, costly if wrong, 3%
- Investigate personnel problems and misconduct, severe if wrong, 2%
What to learn
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 41% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- The conversations. About 39% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 20 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supervise and coordinate the investigation of criminal cases, offering guidance and expertise to investigators, and ensuring that procedures are conducted in accordance with laws and regulations.Guidance to investigators in person, with the case files reviewed.Done daily by most who do it. | 24% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | Documents 50%, in person 50% | 35%Desk part half by now |
| Prepare work schedules and assign duties to subordinates.Building the schedule in a system, with some planning and telling people.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Systems 50%, documents 30%, conversation 20% | 80%Desk part half by now |
| Maintain logs, prepare reports, and direct the preparation, handling, and maintenance of departmental records.Logs and reports kept, and the department's records directed.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 50%, systems 50% | 99%Half by now |
| Monitor and evaluate the job performance of subordinates, and authorize promotions and transfers.Reviews written, with conversations in person.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Documents 60%, in person 40% | 57%Desk part half by now |
| Conduct raids and order detention of witnesses and suspects for questioning.Raids on the ground and detention ordered at the scene.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | Hands-on 70%, in person 30% | Stays with people |
| Prepare budgets and manage expenditures of department funds.The budget on paper, with expenditures tracked.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 6% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days | Documents 80%, systems 20% | 40%Half by Jan 2027 |
| Train staff in proper police work procedures.Training in person.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h50 min to 6.7 h | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Investigate and resolve personnel problems within organization and charges of misconduct against staff.Interviews in person and the written findings.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 50%, in person 50% | 28%Desk part half by now |
| Explain police operations to subordinates to assist them in performing their job duties.Guidance to officers in person.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Develop, implement, and revise departmental policies and procedures.Policies written and revised.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 6.7 h3.3 h to 3.3 work days | Documents 100% | 69%Half by now |
| Direct collection, preparation, and handling of evidence and personal property of prisoners.Directing officers on the evidence and property, with the records.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 3% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | In person 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Cooperate with court personnel and officials from other law enforcement agencies and testify in court, as necessary.Court appearances and calls with court personnel and other agencies.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | In person 60%, conversation 40% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers13% now, 14% by 2028
- Detectives and Criminal Investigators69% now, 74% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers28% now, 29% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers34% now, 42% by 2028
- Transit and Railroad Police21% now, 32% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers31% now, 32% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 44% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 53% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (52% to 53% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Keep logs and direct records (99% of the task's time now); Supervise criminal investigations (35% of the task's time now, 50% by the end of 2028); and Prepare schedules and assign duties (80% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Conduct raids and order detentions; Train officers in procedures; and Explain operations to officers. Together such tasks are about 23% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are judgment where errors are severe; reviewing work you did not do yourself; and briefing a model and checking its drafts. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 46% of the working time stays with people, 44% becomes checking a model's work and 8% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.021% went to this job's tasks, the 310th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 20 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 7% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 3% of the working time. Its index is 0.03 of 3. One example: ANYmal (ANYbotics) for "inspect facilities and vehicles". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 20 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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