First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of members of police force.
154,610 people do this job in the US. $106,040 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 54%
- 33%
- 14%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 22%. Today's estimate: 29%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 20 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supervise and coordinate the investigation of criminal cases, offering guidance and expertise to investigators, and ensuring that procedures are conducted in accordance with laws and regulations.Done daily by most who do it. | 24% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | Stays with people | |
| Prepare work schedules and assign duties to subordinates.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | 77%Half by now | |
| Maintain logs, prepare reports, and direct the preparation, handling, and maintenance of departmental records.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | 65%Half by now | |
| Monitor and evaluate the job performance of subordinates, and authorize promotions and transfers.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | 46%Half by Oct 2026 | |
| Conduct raids and order detention of witnesses and suspects for questioning.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 8% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | Stays with people | |
| Prepare budgets and manage expenditures of department funds.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 6% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days | 6%Half by Jan 2028 | |
| Train staff in proper police work procedures.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Investigate and resolve personnel problems within organization and charges of misconduct against staff.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 4% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 8%Half by Sep 2027 | |
| Explain police operations to subordinates to assist them in performing their job duties.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | 95%Half by now | |
| Develop, implement, and revise departmental policies and procedures.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 6.7 h3.3 h to 3.3 work days | 9%Half by Jul 2027 | |
| Direct collection, preparation, and handling of evidence and personal property of prisoners.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 3% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Cooperate with court personnel and officials from other law enforcement agencies and testify in court, as necessary.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers9% now, 9% by 2028
- Detectives and Criminal Investigators35% now, 67% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers18% now, 27% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers20% now, 37% by 2028
- Transit and Railroad Police10% now, 31% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers21% now, 29% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).