Metro area, Illinois
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
4,513,280 people work in this area, at mean pay of $73,380 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 2.2 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 40%
- 8%
- 52%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 24%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 49% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 75,240 | 67% | 104 million | $47K |
| Office Clerks, General | 66,840 | 58% | 81 million | $46K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 55,730 | 69% | 79 million | $71K |
| Cashiers | 99,240 | 30% | 62 million | $35K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 35,660 | 76% | 57 million | $51K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 30,540 | 83% | 53 million | $38K |
| General and Operations Managers | 122,930 | 19% | 47 million | $109K |
| Registered Nurses | 100,240 | 21% | 44 million | $100K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 50,190 | 39% | 41 million | $50K |
| Retail Salespersons | 96,950 | 20% | 40 million | $36K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 157,920 | 11% | 37 million | $41K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 38,490 | 44% | 35 million | $75K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 668 smaller jobs (2,293,490 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers29 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses28 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel24 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons23 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand22 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers22 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders21 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Coordinate conferences, meetings, or special events, such as luncheons or graduation ceremonies.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive18 million hours89% of the task within reach
- Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists18 million hours90% of the task within reach
Other areas in Illinois
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area169,470 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- Peoria, IL166,020 people23% now, 38% by 2028
- East Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area143,050 people23% now, 34% by 2028
- South Illinois nonmetropolitan area141,200 people23% now, 34% by 2028
- Rockford, IL137,650 people23% now, 34% by 2028
- Northwest Illinois nonmetropolitan area126,860 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Champaign-Urbana, IL105,500 people24% now, 37% by 2028
- Springfield, IL100,810 people25% now, 42% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works