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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Metro area, Illinois

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

4,513,280 people work in this area, at mean pay of $73,380 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
24%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$101B

a year: 2.2 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 40%
  • 8%
  • 52%
6%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 40% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 24%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 2% within reacho3, April 2025: 7% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 9% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 11% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 11% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 13% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 13% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 21% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 24% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 49% of the people.

People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 668 smaller jobs (2,293,490 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers
    29 million hours100% of the task within reach
  2. Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses
    28 million hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel
    24 million hours100% of the task within reach
  4. Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons
    23 million hours100% of the task within reach
  5. Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand
    22 million hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers
    22 million hours99% of the task within reach
  7. Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders
    21 million hours100% of the task within reach
  8. Coordinate conferences, meetings, or special events, such as luncheons or graduation ceremonies.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive
    18 million hours89% of the task within reach
  9. Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers
    18 million hours100% of the task within reach
  10. Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists
    18 million hours90% of the task within reach

Other areas in Illinois

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works