Metro area, Illinois
Champaign-Urbana, IL
105,500 people work in this area, at mean pay of $68,290 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 58 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 35%
- 24%
- 41%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 23% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 92,764 people in jobs so far, 88% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 37 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 20 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 13 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 24%
- 11%
- 7%
- 17%
- 41%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 92,764 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft44,483 (48%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself32,621 (35%)
- The conversations26,340 (28%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts25,946 (28%)
- Judgment where errors are severe24,943 (27%)
- Signing off under your license10,645 (11%)
- Running AI inside the business systems9,230 (10%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization4,820 (5%)
- Handling protected records280 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 30%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 47% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 35% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 24% in a purpose-built cell, 10% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.47 of 3.
- Not physical 53%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 24%
- In a structured facility 10%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 52% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered Nurses | 3,520 | 37% | 2.7 million | $90K |
| Office Clerks, General | 2,180 | 56% | 2.6 million | $49K |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,260 | 45% | 2.1 million | $97K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,480 | 64% | 2 million | $41K |
| Teaching Assistants, Postsecondary | 2,480 | 38% | 2 million | $50K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 1,220 | 59% | 1.5 million | $48K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 710 | 88% | 1.3 million | $49K |
| Retail Salespersons | 2,180 | 23% | 1 million | $34K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 570 | 84% | 1 million | $46K |
| Cashiers | 2,500 | 19% | 962,000 | $32K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 760 | 60% | 942,157 | $37K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 880 | 48% | 882,253 | $38K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 320 smaller jobs (45,070 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 90% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop teaching materials, such as syllabi, visual aids, answer keys, supplementary notes, or course Web sites.Teaching Assistants, Postsecondary748,889 hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide assistance to faculty members or staff with laboratory or field research.Teaching Assistants, Postsecondary674,739 hours40% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses590,062 hours60% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General546,032 hours100% of the task within reach
- Evaluate and grade examinations, assignments, or papers, and record grades.Teaching Assistants, Postsecondary505,575 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain accurate, detailed reports and records.Registered Nurses403,713 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders393,841 hours50% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers367,588 hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives334,961 hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives308,948 hours100% of the task within reach
The regional report on Champaign-Urbana, IL
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 90% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in Illinois
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN4,513,280 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- West Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area169,470 people27% now, 30% by 2028
- Peoria, IL166,020 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- East Central Illinois nonmetropolitan area143,050 people27% now, 30% by 2028
- South Illinois nonmetropolitan area141,200 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Rockford, IL137,650 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Northwest Illinois nonmetropolitan area126,860 people26% now, 30% by 2028
- Springfield, IL100,810 people33% now, 39% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in Champaign-Urbana, IL is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 30% of the paid hours in Champaign-Urbana, IL are within reach of AI models now and 35% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (34% to 35% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Champaign-Urbana, IL carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Registered Nurses (3,520 people, 37% of their time, about 2.7 million hours a year); Office Clerks, General (2,180 people, 56% of their time, about 2.6 million hours a year); and General and Operations Managers (2,260 people, 45% of their time, about 2.1 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Champaign-Urbana, IL carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Develop teaching materials, such as syllabi, visual aids, answer keys, supplementary notes, or course Web sites (Teaching Assistants, Postsecondary, about 748,889 hours a year); Provide assistance to faculty members or staff with laboratory or field research (Teaching Assistants, Postsecondary, about 674,739 hours a year); and Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals (Registered Nurses, about 590,062 hours a year).
- What would people working in Champaign-Urbana, IL learn first?
- Among the 92,764 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (44,483 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (32,621 people); and the conversations (26,340 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 65% of their working time stays with people, 27% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Champaign-Urbana, IL (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 90% of its people, and 88% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.