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Software Developers

Research, design, and develop computer and network software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions, applying principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis. Update software or enhance existing software capabilities. May work with computer hardware engineers to integrate hardware and software systems, and develop specifications and performance requirements. May maintain databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team.

1,687,890 people do this job in the US. $135,980 a year.

now
11%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 76%
  • 24%
  • 0%
29%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
August 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 76% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 7%. Today's estimate: 11%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 1% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 7% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 11% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 17 tasks from .

TaskKind
Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Done daily by most who do it. 20%4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks0%Half by Apr 2029
Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.13%4.2 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days23%Half by Mar 2027
Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.13%6.7 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days9%Half by Jul 2027
Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 11%6.7 h2.5 h to 2.5 work daysStays with people
Determine system performance standards.Done daily by most who do it. 7%5 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days14%Half by Jul 2027
Analyze information to determine, recommend, and plan installation of a new system or modification of an existing system.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.7%6.7 h2.5 h to 2.5 work days9%Half by Jul 2027
Store, retrieve, and manipulate data for analysis of system capabilities and requirements.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.5%2.5 h50 min to 1 work day40%Half by Dec 2026
Supervise the work of programmers, technologists and technicians and other engineering and scientific personnel.Done daily by most who do it.4%3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work daysStays with people
Coordinate installation of software system.Done daily by most who do it.4%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027
Confer with systems analysts, engineers, programmers and others to design systems and to obtain information on project limitations and capabilities, performance requirements and interfaces.Done daily by most who do it. 4%1.7 h50 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Obtain and evaluate information on factors such as reporting formats required, costs, or security needs to determine hardware configuration.Done more than yearly by most who do it.3%5 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days14%Half by Jul 2027
Train users to use new or modified equipment.Done daily by most who do it.2%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work daysStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.