Software Developers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 48% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 78% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 18% of the time, stays with people.
Research, design, and develop computer and network software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions, applying principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis. Update software or enhance existing software capabilities. May work with computer hardware engineers to integrate hardware and software systems, and develop specifications and performance requirements. May maintain databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team.
1,687,890 people do this job in the US. $135,980 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on3 h
- A person checks AI's work17 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet13 h
- Stays with people7 h
Software Developers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 3 hours, 17 hours become checking its work, 13 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 7 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Modify software to fix and upgrade it (about 5 h, a person checks); Analyze user needs and feasibility (about 3 h, a person checks); Develop testing and documentation (about 2 h, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 77%
- 5%
- 18%
- 0%
- 0%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 48% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 8%. Today's estimate: 48%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.36% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 71st largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 7 of its 17 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 5.8% to 7.8% (released February and March 2025); 4.5% to 3.4% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.39% to 0.36% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 5.8% | 2 of 708 | 10 of 17 |
| Released March 2025 | 7.8% | 1 of 703 | 10 of 17 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 4.5% | 4 of 655 | 10 of 17 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 4% | 4 of 672 | 10 of 17 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 3.4% | 3 of 677 | 10 of 17 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.39% | 63 of 434 | 7 of 17 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.36% | 71 of 447 | 7 of 17 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates almost none of this job's working time as physical work, so robots do not reach it.
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
18% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Analyze user needs and feasibility, the conversation, 4%
- Supervise programmers and technicians, the conversation, 3%
- Design systems with other engineers, the conversation, 3%
- Develop testing and documentation, the conversation, 2%
- Coordinate software installation, the conversation, 2%
- Train users on new systems, the conversation, 1%
What becomes checking the machine
70% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 7% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Design and develop software, costly if wrong, 16%
- Modify software to fix and upgrade it, costly if wrong, 13%
- Analyze user needs and feasibility, costly if wrong, 9%
- Develop testing and documentation, costly if wrong, 9%
- Determine performance standards, costly if wrong, 7%
- Plan new systems or modifications, costly if wrong, 7%
What to learn
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 77% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- The conversations. About 18% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 17 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Writing and changing code.Done daily by most who do it. | 20% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | Documents 100% | 5%Half by Apr 2028 |
| Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Reading and changing code.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 13% | 4.2 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | Documents 100% | 86%Half by now |
| Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Analysis on paper, with conversations to learn the need.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 13% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | Documents 70%, conversation 30% | 48%Desk part half by now |
| Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.Writing tests, procedures and documents, and directing others who do.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 11% | 6.7 h2.5 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 80%, conversation 20% | 55%Desk part half by now |
| Determine system performance standards.Analysis and a written standard.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 5 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 100% | 67%Half by now |
| Analyze information to determine, recommend, and plan installation of a new system or modification of an existing system.Analysis and a written plan.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 7% | 6.7 h2.5 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 100% | 69%Half by now |
| Store, retrieve, and manipulate data for analysis of system capabilities and requirements.Queries and analysis, run against the project's data stores.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 5% | 2.5 h50 min to 1 work day | Documents 70%, systems 30% | 92%Half by now |
| Supervise the work of programmers, technologists and technicians and other engineering and scientific personnel.Conversation with the team, and review of their work.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | Conversation 70%, documents 30% | 21%Desk part half by now |
| Coordinate installation of software system.Calls with the people involved, and the rollout steps in the systems.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Systems 50%, conversation 50% | 28%Desk part half by now |
| Confer with systems analysts, engineers, programmers and others to design systems and to obtain information on project limitations and capabilities, performance requirements and interfaces.Working meetings, with notes and sketches around them.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 1.7 h50 min to 3.3 h | Conversation 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Obtain and evaluate information on factors such as reporting formats required, costs, or security needs to determine hardware configuration.Gathering requirements, some by asking, and weighing them on paper.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 5 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Documents 80%, conversation 20% | 53%Desk part half by now |
| Train users to use new or modified equipment.Walking users through the system, live.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | Conversation 80%, documents 20% | 16%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
- Computer Systems Design and Related Services515,410 people
- Software Publishers173,080 people
- Management of Companies and Enterprises103,450 people
- Computing Infrastructure Providers, Data Processing, Web Hosting, and Related Services77,260 people
- Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services55,330 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Software Developers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 48% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 78% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (68% to 81% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Software Developers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Modify software to fix and upgrade it (86% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Analyze user needs and feasibility (48% of the task's time now, 70% by the end of 2028); and Develop testing and documentation (55% of the task's time now, 80% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Software Developers stay with people?
- Every task has a desk part, so each can come partly within reach; the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of each task stay with people, about 18% of the working time.
- What should Software Developers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are briefing a model and checking its drafts; reviewing work you did not do yourself; and the conversations. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 18% of the working time stays with people, 70% becomes checking a model's work and 7% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Software Developers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.36% went to this job's tasks, the 71st largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 7 of its 17 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 29%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Software Developers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds almost none of the working time is physical work, so robots do not reach it.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 17 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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