Metro area, District of Columbia
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
3,136,190 people work in this area, at mean pay of $91,930 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 2.1 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 44%
- 24%
- 32%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 24% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 2,880,640 people in jobs so far, 92% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 1.4 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 569 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 520 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 33%
- 11%
- 10%
- 14%
- 32%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 2,880,640 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself1,394,725 (48%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts1,167,418 (41%)
- The hands-on craft1,081,665 (38%)
- The conversations694,822 (24%)
- Judgment where errors are severe671,370 (23%)
- Signing off under your license260,310 (9%)
- Running AI inside the business systems223,940 (8%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization128,960 (4%)
- Handling protected records8,990 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 33%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 37% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 26% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 18% in a purpose-built cell, 8% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.35 of 3.
- Not physical 63%
- No robot shown 11%
- In a purpose-built cell 18%
- In a structured facility 8%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 47% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General and Operations Managers | 112,530 | 45% | 105 million | $156K |
| Software Developers | 69,060 | 48% | 69 million | $155K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 36,750 | 64% | 49 million | $46K |
| Management Analysts | 62,360 | 37% | 47 million | $127K |
| Office Clerks, General | 39,410 | 56% | 46 million | $52K |
| Project Management Specialists | 38,230 | 58% | 46 million | $127K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 37,010 | 59% | 45 million | $54K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 41,470 | 45% | 39 million | $102K |
| Registered Nurses | 46,830 | 37% | 36 million | $103K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 29,300 | 59% | 36 million | $78K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 18,960 | 84% | 33 million | $48K |
| Retail Salespersons | 66,920 | 23% | 32 million | $37K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 655 smaller jobs (1,618,260 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts31 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Software Developers23 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts21 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers19 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Gather and organize information on problems or procedures.Management Analysts15 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers14 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers14 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers13 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists13 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers13 million hours80% of the task within reach
The regional report on Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 97% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 33% of the paid hours in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV are within reach of AI models now and 44% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (41% to 44% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): General and Operations Managers (112,530 people, 45% of their time, about 105 million hours a year); Software Developers (69,060 people, 48% of their time, about 69 million hours a year); and Customer Service Representatives (36,750 people, 64% of their time, about 49 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program (Management Analysts, about 31 million hours a year); Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design (Software Developers, about 23 million hours a year); and Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding (Management Analysts, about 21 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV learn first?
- Among the 2,880,640 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (1,394,725 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (1,167,418 people); and the hands-on craft (1,081,665 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 56% of their working time stays with people, 35% becomes checking a model's work and 7% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 92% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.