Metro area, California
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
1,134,970 people work in this area, at mean pay of $119,230 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 762 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 46%
- 23%
- 31%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 24% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 1,038,183 people in jobs so far, 92% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 524 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 190 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 188 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 35%
- 10%
- 10%
- 13%
- 31%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 1,038,183 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself526,248 (51%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts445,127 (43%)
- The hands-on craft396,662 (38%)
- The conversations246,372 (24%)
- Judgment where errors are severe224,685 (22%)
- Signing off under your license78,773 (8%)
- Running AI inside the business systems66,370 (6%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization43,240 (4%)
- Handling protected records3,380 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 33%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 36% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 26% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 18% in a purpose-built cell, 7% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.34 of 3.
- Not physical 64%
- No robot shown 11%
- In a purpose-built cell 18%
- In a structured facility 7%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 49% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Developers | 87,350 | 48% | 87 million | $213K |
| Computer and Information Systems Managers | 19,070 | 45% | 18 million | $292K |
| Registered Nurses | 22,930 | 37% | 18 million | $217K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 13,390 | 59% | 16 million | $117K |
| General and Operations Managers | 17,230 | 45% | 16 million | $164K |
| Office Clerks, General | 13,470 | 56% | 16 million | $59K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 7,590 | 88% | 14 million | $66K |
| Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 12,710 | 50% | 13 million | $142K |
| Project Management Specialists | 10,300 | 58% | 12 million | $135K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 13,180 | 45% | 12 million | $122K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 8,860 | 64% | 12 million | $60K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 6,340 | 84% | 11 million | $69K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 560 smaller jobs (561,100 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Software Developers29 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers24 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers17 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.Software Developers16 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Determine system performance standards.Software Developers13 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze information to determine, recommend, and plan installation of a new system or modification of an existing system.Software Developers12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop computer information resources, providing for data security and control, strategic computing, and disaster recovery.Computer and Information Systems Managers10 million hours92% of the task within reach
- Store, retrieve, and manipulate data for analysis of system capabilities and requirements.Software Developers9.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists8.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel5.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
The regional report on San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 97% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people32% now, 41% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people25% now, 29% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people30% now, 37% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people29% now, 37% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people25% now, 29% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people24% now, 28% by 2028
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA323,890 people28% now, 34% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 33% of the paid hours in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA are within reach of AI models now and 45% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (42% to 46% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Software Developers (87,350 people, 48% of their time, about 87 million hours a year); Computer and Information Systems Managers (19,070 people, 45% of their time, about 18 million hours a year); and Registered Nurses (22,930 people, 37% of their time, about 18 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design (Software Developers, about 29 million hours a year); Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance (Software Developers, about 24 million hours a year); and Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints (Software Developers, about 17 million hours a year).
- What would people working in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA learn first?
- Among the 1,038,183 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (526,248 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (445,127 people); and the hands-on craft (396,662 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 54% of their working time stays with people, 37% becomes checking a model's work and 7% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 92% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.