Metro area, California
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
1,134,970 people work in this area, at mean pay of $119,230 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 503 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 50%
- 10%
- 41%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 49% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Developers | 87,350 | 11% | 21 million | $213K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 13,390 | 69% | 19 million | $117K |
| Office Clerks, General | 13,470 | 58% | 16 million | $59K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 8,860 | 67% | 12 million | $60K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 7,590 | 76% | 12 million | $66K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 6,340 | 87% | 11 million | $69K |
| Computer and Information Systems Managers | 19,070 | 28% | 11 million | $292K |
| Cashiers | 16,530 | 30% | 10 million | $43K |
| Registered Nurses | 22,930 | 21% | 10 million | $217K |
| Project Management Specialists | 10,300 | 45% | 9.6 million | $135K |
| Personal Care Aides | 24,805 | 17% | 8.7 million | $38K |
| Retail Salespersons | 18,340 | 20% | 7.6 million | $44K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 560 smaller jobs (561,100 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers24 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers24 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Software Developers14 million hours38% of the task within reach
- Determine system performance standards.Software Developers13 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Analyze information to determine, recommend, and plan installation of a new system or modification of an existing system.Software Developers12 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Store, retrieve, and manipulate data for analysis of system capabilities and requirements.Software Developers9.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists7.2 million hours90% of the task within reach
- Coordinate installation of software system.Software Developers7 million hours96% of the task within reach
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers6.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop computer information resources, providing for data security and control, strategic computing, and disaster recovery.Computer and Information Systems Managers6.7 million hours62% of the task within reach
Other areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people24% now, 39% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people23% now, 43% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people23% now, 39% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people23% now, 39% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people20% now, 31% by 2028
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA323,890 people23% now, 37% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works