Metro area, California
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
2,373,920 people work in this area, at mean pay of $100,220 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 1.1 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 45%
- 9%
- 46%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 46% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 37,590 | 58% | 46 million | $52K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 29,980 | 69% | 43 million | $97K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 18,100 | 76% | 29 million | $66K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 19,930 | 67% | 28 million | $58K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 13,660 | 87% | 25 million | $61K |
| Cashiers | 38,250 | 30% | 24 million | $41K |
| Personal Care Aides | 59,560 | 17% | 21 million | $36K |
| Project Management Specialists | 20,770 | 45% | 19 million | $135K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 19,480 | 47% | 19 million | $89K |
| Registered Nurses | 41,750 | 21% | 18 million | $187K |
| Home Health Aides | 59,560 | 14% | 18 million | $36K |
| General and Operations Managers | 43,520 | 19% | 17 million | $150K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 649 smaller jobs (1,237,370 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers19 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers19 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists14 million hours90% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel13 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Software Developers11 million hours38% of the task within reach
- Provide patients and families with emotional support and instruction in areas such as caring for infants, preparing healthy meals, living independently, or adapting to disability or illness.Home Health Aides11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine system performance standards.Software Developers10 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons9.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people24% now, 39% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people23% now, 39% by 2028
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA1,134,970 people22% now, 46% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people23% now, 39% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people20% now, 31% by 2028
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA323,890 people23% now, 37% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works