Metro area, California
Bakersfield-Delano, CA
338,230 people work in this area, at mean pay of $64,650 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 125 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 30%
- 15%
- 55%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 19%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 57% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 5,500 | 54% | 6.2 million | $45K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2,580 | 78% | 4.2 million | $53K |
| Registered Nurses | 5,620 | 28% | 3.2 million | $129K |
| Cashiers | 8,350 | 19% | 3.2 million | $35K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 4,540 | 30% | 2.8 million | $80K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 1,670 | 81% | 2.8 million | $47K |
| Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse | 32,500 | 4% | 2.7 million | $35K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,970 | 64% | 2.6 million | $47K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 6,190 | 19% | 2.4 million | $39K |
| Retail Salespersons | 6,050 | 19% | 2.4 million | $36K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 2,730 | 43% | 2.4 million | $51K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 2,740 | 40% | 2.3 million | $46K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 446 smaller jobs (139,740 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 95% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General1.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Attend professional meetings, educational conferences, or teacher training workshops to improve professional competence.Substitute Teachers, Short-Term1.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses941,616 hours60% of the task within reach
- Provide information and advice to the public regarding the selection, purchase, and care of products.Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse900,432 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers874,826 hours100% of the task within reach
- Record information about crops, such as pesticide use, yields, or costs.Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse849,056 hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks839,037 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain and update filing, inventory, mailing, and database systems, either manually or using a computer.Office Clerks, General767,484 hours80% of the task within reach
Other areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people21% now, 41% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA1,134,970 people21% now, 44% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA323,890 people21% now, 35% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works