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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Metro area, California

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA

1,080,590 people work in this area, at mean pay of $77,150 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
22%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$24B

a year: 466 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 39%
  • 18%
  • 44%
5%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 39% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 22%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 2% within reacho3, April 2025: 6% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 7% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 10% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 10% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 11% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 12% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 19% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 22% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 49% of the people.

PeoplePay here
Office Clerks, General21,34054%24 million$49K
Customer Service Representatives11,51064%15 million$50K
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks8,68078%14 million$57K
Registered Nurses23,59028%14 million$171K
Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants7,71081%13 million$58K
Computer User Support Specialists13,82042%12 million$106K
Retail Salespersons22,97019%9.3 million$38K
General and Operations Managers17,98023%8.5 million$118K
Cashiers19,91019%7.7 million$37K
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive8,45043%7.5 million$55K
Stockers and Order Fillers17,87019%7.1 million$43K
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers9,19035%6.6 million$77K

People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 623 smaller jobs (529,710 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts
    9.7 million hours76% of the task within reach
  2. Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts
    8.3 million hours98% of the task within reach
  3. Gather and organize information on problems or procedures.Management Analysts
    6.3 million hours80% of the task within reach
  4. Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General
    5.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
  5. Recommend purchase of storage equipment and design area layout to locate equipment in space available.Management Analysts
    4 million hours79% of the task within reach
  6. Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses
    4 million hours60% of the task within reach
  7. Prepare manuals and train workers in use of new forms, reports, procedures or equipment, according to organizational policy.Management Analysts
    4 million hours67% of the task within reach
  8. Prepare, examine, or analyze accounting records, financial statements, or other financial reports to assess accuracy, completeness, and conformance to reporting and procedural standards.Accountants and Auditors
    3.5 million hours98% of the task within reach
  9. Document findings of study and prepare recommendations for implementation of new systems, procedures, or organizational changes.Management Analysts
    3.2 million hours95% of the task within reach
  10. Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
    3.1 million hours100% of the task within reach

Other areas in California

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works