State
California
18,213,700 people work in California, at mean pay of $80,690 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 8.6 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 40%
- 8%
- 52%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 46% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 311,490 | 58% | 377 million | $48K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 176,850 | 67% | 245 million | $50K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 151,870 | 76% | 241 million | $59K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 156,110 | 69% | 222 million | $81K |
| Cashiers | 336,110 | 30% | 210 million | $37K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 115,050 | 87% | 209 million | $54K |
| Personal Care Aides | 485,075 | 17% | 171 million | $34K |
| Retail Salespersons | 376,460 | 20% | 156 million | $38K |
| Registered Nurses | 338,940 | 21% | 147 million | $140K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 149,230 | 47% | 146 million | $78K |
| Home Health Aides | 485,075 | 14% | 144 million | $34K |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 449,840 | 15% | 142 million | $42K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 760 smaller jobs (9,517,740 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers135 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses95 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons91 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide patients and families with emotional support and instruction in areas such as caring for infants, preparing healthy meals, living independently, or adapting to disability or illness.Home Health Aides87 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers79 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers79 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General78 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Participate in case reviews, consulting with the team caring for the client, to evaluate the client's needs and plan for continuing services.Personal Care Aides69 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists68 million hours90% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel67 million hours100% of the task within reach
Metro and nonmetro areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people24% now, 39% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people23% now, 43% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people23% now, 39% by 2028
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA1,134,970 people22% now, 46% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people23% now, 39% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people20% now, 31% by 2028
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA323,890 people23% now, 37% by 2028
- Stockton-Lodi, CA289,660 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA205,260 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA200,760 people22% now, 35% by 2028
- Modesto, CA195,230 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Salinas, CA186,430 people19% now, 28% by 2028
- Visalia, CA171,140 people20% now, 28% by 2028
- Vallejo, CA144,130 people23% now, 34% by 2028
- San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA122,020 people22% now, 35% by 2028
- North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area109,630 people23% now, 34% by 2028
- North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area104,500 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA98,500 people24% now, 37% by 2028
- Merced, CA79,510 people21% now, 30% by 2028
- Chico, CA78,220 people24% now, 35% by 2028
- Napa, CA77,860 people21% now, 31% by 2028
- Redding, CA71,550 people24% now, 35% by 2028
- El Centro, CA65,430 people22% now, 31% by 2028
- Eastern Sierra-Mother Lode Region of California nonmetropolitan area63,160 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Yuba City, CA51,090 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- Hanford-Corcoran, CA48,820 people21% now, 29% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works