State
California
18,213,700 people work in California, at mean pay of $80,690 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 11 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 36%
- 24%
- 40%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 22% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 16,831,706 people in jobs so far, 92% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 6.8 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 3.4 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 2.6 billion hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 26%
- 10%
- 8%
- 16%
- 40%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 16,831,706 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft8,194,118 (49%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself6,334,207 (38%)
- The conversations4,941,958 (29%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts4,903,989 (29%)
- Judgment where errors are severe4,417,168 (26%)
- Signing off under your license1,515,500 (9%)
- Running AI inside the business systems1,344,520 (8%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization953,230 (6%)
- Handling protected records86,990 (1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 29%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 46% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 33% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 23% in a purpose-built cell, 10% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.45 of 3.
- Not physical 54%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 23%
- In a structured facility 10%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 46% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 311,490 | 56% | 366 million | $48K |
| Software Developers | 284,390 | 48% | 285 million | $174K |
| General and Operations Managers | 300,840 | 45% | 282 million | $124K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 151,870 | 88% | 278 million | $59K |
| Registered Nurses | 338,940 | 37% | 259 million | $140K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 176,850 | 64% | 237 million | $50K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 115,050 | 84% | 202 million | $54K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 158,630 | 59% | 194 million | $55K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 156,110 | 59% | 191 million | $81K |
| Retail Salespersons | 376,460 | 23% | 180 million | $38K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 149,230 | 54% | 169 million | $78K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 175,360 | 45% | 165 million | $97K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 760 smaller jobs (9,517,740 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Software Developers94 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers80 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General78 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists75 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts68 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel67 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses57 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers55 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.Software Developers52 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand50 million hours100% of the task within reach
The regional report on California
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 98% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Metro and nonmetro areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people32% now, 41% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people25% now, 29% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people30% now, 37% by 2028
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA1,134,970 people33% now, 45% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people29% now, 37% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people25% now, 29% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people24% now, 28% by 2028
- Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA323,890 people28% now, 34% by 2028
- Stockton-Lodi, CA289,660 people25% now, 28% by 2028
- Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA205,260 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA200,760 people27% now, 33% by 2028
- Modesto, CA195,230 people25% now, 29% by 2028
- Salinas, CA186,430 people22% now, 25% by 2028
- Visalia, CA171,140 people22% now, 25% by 2028
- Vallejo, CA144,130 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA122,020 people27% now, 32% by 2028
- North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area109,630 people26% now, 30% by 2028
- North Valley-Northern Mountains Region of California nonmetropolitan area104,500 people26% now, 30% by 2028
- Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA98,500 people28% now, 34% by 2028
- Merced, CA79,510 people23% now, 26% by 2028
- Chico, CA78,220 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Napa, CA77,860 people24% now, 28% by 2028
- Redding, CA71,550 people27% now, 32% by 2028
- El Centro, CA65,430 people25% now, 28% by 2028
- Eastern Sierra-Mother Lode Region of California nonmetropolitan area63,160 people26% now, 30% by 2028
- Yuba City, CA51,090 people26% now, 30% by 2028
- Hanford-Corcoran, CA48,820 people23% now, 26% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in California is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 29% of the paid hours in California are within reach of AI models now and 36% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (35% to 36% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in California carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Office Clerks, General (311,490 people, 56% of their time, about 366 million hours a year); Software Developers (284,390 people, 48% of their time, about 285 million hours a year); and General and Operations Managers (300,840 people, 45% of their time, about 282 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in California carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design (Software Developers, about 94 million hours a year); Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance (Software Developers, about 80 million hours a year); and Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports (Office Clerks, General, about 78 million hours a year).
- What would people working in California learn first?
- Among the 16,831,706 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (8,194,118 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (6,334,207 people); and the conversations (4,941,958 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 64% of their working time stays with people, 28% becomes checking a model's work and 7% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in California (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 98% of its people, and 92% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.