Nonmetro area, California
North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area
109,630 people work in this area, at mean pay of $64,870 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 56 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 30%
- 26%
- 44%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 21% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 98,481 people in jobs so far, 90% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 34 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 20 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 13 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 20%
- 10%
- 7%
- 20%
- 43%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 98,481 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft52,790 (54%)
- The conversations35,068 (36%)
- Judgment where errors are severe32,045 (33%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself27,466 (28%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts19,443 (20%)
- Signing off under your license10,020 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems8,770 (9%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization6,050 (6%)
- Handling protected records570 (1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 26%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 52% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 35% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 24% in a purpose-built cell, 10% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.47 of 3.
- Not physical 48%
- No robot shown 16%
- In a purpose-built cell 24%
- In a structured facility 10%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 55% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 2,310 | 56% | 2.7 million | $47K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,300 | 88% | 2.4 million | $55K |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,910 | 45% | 1.8 million | $98K |
| Registered Nurses | 2,200 | 37% | 1.7 million | $134K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 1,120 | 59% | 1.4 million | $53K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,820 | 35% | 1.3 million | $79K |
| Cashiers | 3,260 | 19% | 1.3 million | $37K |
| Retail Salespersons | 2,580 | 23% | 1.2 million | $39K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 660 | 84% | 1.2 million | $49K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 910 | 54% | 1 million | $73K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 990 | 49% | 1 million | $52K |
| Personal Care Aides | 5,070 | 10% | 1 million | $35K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 330 smaller jobs (45,990 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 93% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General578,594 hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers479,335 hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks422,770 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager.Home Health Aides422,467 hours70% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them.Personal Care Aides390,725 hours70% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses368,789 hours60% of the task within reach
- Prepare and maintain records of client progress and services performed, reporting changes in client condition to manager or supervisor.Personal Care Aides360,164 hours70% of the task within reach
- Plan, purchase, prepare, or serve meals to patients or other family members, according to prescribed diets.Home Health Aides349,291 hours20% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers341,549 hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts326,157 hours100% of the task within reach
The regional report on North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 93% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people32% now, 41% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people25% now, 29% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people30% now, 37% by 2028
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA1,134,970 people33% now, 45% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people29% now, 37% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people25% now, 29% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people24% now, 28% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 26% of the paid hours in North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area are within reach of AI models now and 30% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (29% to 30% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Office Clerks, General (2,310 people, 56% of their time, about 2.7 million hours a year); Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks (1,300 people, 88% of their time, about 2.4 million hours a year); and General and Operations Managers (1,910 people, 45% of their time, about 1.8 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports (Office Clerks, General, about 578,594 hours a year); Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions (Cashiers, about 479,335 hours a year); and Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information (Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks, about 422,770 hours a year).
- What would people working in North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area learn first?
- Among the 98,481 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (52,790 people); the conversations (35,068 people); and judgment where errors are severe (32,045 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 69% of their working time stays with people, 23% becomes checking a model's work and 7% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in North Coast Region of California nonmetropolitan area (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 93% of its people, and 90% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.