Metro area, California
Merced, CA
79,510 people work in this area, at mean pay of $61,520 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 29 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 28%
- 18%
- 54%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 19%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 60% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 1,250 | 54% | 1.4 million | $47K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 680 | 78% | 1.1 million | $52K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 1,560 | 30% | 966,952 | $100K |
| Cashiers | 2,250 | 19% | 865,800 | $35K |
| Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 1,020 | 32% | 681,035 | $100K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 500 | 64% | 669,760 | $46K |
| Registered Nurses | 1,050 | 28% | 607,153 | $132K |
| Retail Salespersons | 1,480 | 19% | 597,210 | $38K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 660 | 40% | 554,612 | $45K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 1,400 | 19% | 553,280 | $38K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 620 | 43% | 549,371 | $52K |
| Personal Care Aides | 2,495 | 10% | 498,202 | $34K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 263 smaller jobs (28,940 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 90% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Attend professional meetings, educational conferences, or teacher training workshops to improve professional competence.Substitute Teachers, Short-Term352,363 hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers330,829 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General313,092 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education244,852 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers235,732 hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks221,141 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager.Home Health Aides207,901 hours70% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them.Personal Care Aides192,280 hours70% of the task within reach
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education185,161 hours70% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons179,332 hours50% of the task within reach
Other areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people21% now, 41% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA1,134,970 people21% now, 44% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people19% now, 29% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works