Metro area, California
El Centro, CA
65,430 people work in this area, at mean pay of $61,630 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 24 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 29%
- 19%
- 51%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 66% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 1,100 | 54% | 1.2 million | $45K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 530 | 78% | 855,463 | $48K |
| Personal Care Aides | 4,010 | 10% | 800,717 | $34K |
| Retail Salespersons | 1,900 | 19% | 766,688 | $35K |
| Cashiers | 1,960 | 19% | 754,208 | $35K |
| Compliance Officers | 840 | 37% | 639,478 | $107K |
| Home Health Aides | 4,010 | 7% | 608,878 | $34K |
| Detectives and Criminal Investigators | 770 | 35% | 554,157 | $124K |
| Registered Nurses | 950 | 28% | 549,329 | $103K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 1,360 | 19% | 537,472 | $39K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 860 | 30% | 533,063 | $100K |
| Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 780 | 32% | 520,791 | $99K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 217 smaller jobs (19,440 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 88% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers491,892 hours94% of the task within reach
- Prepare reports that detail investigation findings.Detectives and Criminal Investigators364,838 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager.Home Health Aides334,141 hours70% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them.Personal Care Aides309,035 hours70% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers288,189 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare and maintain records of client progress and services performed, reporting changes in client condition to manager or supervisor.Personal Care Aides284,863 hours70% of the task within reach
- Plan, purchase, prepare, or serve meals to patients or other family members, according to prescribed diets.Home Health Aides276,264 hours20% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General275,521 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons230,224 hours50% of the task within reach
- Provide assistance to internal or external auditors in compliance reviews.Compliance Officers227,127 hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people21% now, 41% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA1,134,970 people21% now, 44% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people19% now, 29% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works