Metro area, California
Stockton-Lodi, CA
289,660 people work in this area, at mean pay of $64,950 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 109 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 30%
- 16%
- 54%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 16% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 55% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 4,900 | 54% | 5.5 million | $49K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 2,650 | 64% | 3.5 million | $50K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2,080 | 78% | 3.4 million | $56K |
| Registered Nurses | 5,460 | 28% | 3.2 million | $135K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 2,730 | 53% | 3 million | $46K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 10,110 | 14% | 2.9 million | $60K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 15,030 | 9% | 2.8 million | $47K |
| Retail Salespersons | 5,680 | 19% | 2.3 million | $38K |
| Cashiers | 5,900 | 19% | 2.3 million | $36K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 3,380 | 30% | 2.1 million | $97K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 2,310 | 43% | 2 million | $54K |
| General and Operations Managers | 3,800 | 23% | 1.8 million | $105K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 435 smaller jobs (116,340 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 90% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses914,808 hours60% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers867,508 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers861,129 hours100% of the task within reach
- Attend professional meetings, educational conferences, or teacher training workshops to improve professional competence.Substitute Teachers, Short-Term743,608 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks727,744 hours100% of the task within reach
- Read work orders or receive oral instructions to determine work assignments or material or equipment needs.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand708,250 hours50% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons688,248 hours50% of the task within reach
- Maintain and update filing, inventory, mailing, and database systems, either manually or using a computer.Office Clerks, General683,759 hours80% of the task within reach
Other areas in California
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA6,271,560 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA2,373,920 people21% now, 41% by 2028
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA1,716,760 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA1,538,060 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA1,134,970 people21% now, 44% by 2028
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA1,080,590 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- Fresno, CA476,890 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- Bakersfield-Delano, CA338,230 people19% now, 29% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works