Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck. Requires commercial drivers' license. Includes tow truck drivers.
2,062,040 people do this job in the US. $58,640 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 15%
- 0%
- 85%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 15%. Today's estimate: 15%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 29 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons, including tractor-trailer combinations, to transport and deliver products, livestock, or other materials.Done daily by most who do it. | 45% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 1.1 work days | Stays with people | |
| Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Inspect loads to ensure that cargo is secure.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Secure cargo for transport, using ropes, blocks, chain, binders, or covers.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 13 min4 min to 29 min | Stays with people | |
| Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Couple or uncouple trailers by changing trailer jack positions, connecting or disconnecting air or electrical lines, or manipulating fifth-wheel locks.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 17 min8 min to 33 min | Stays with people | |
| Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators0% now, 0% by 2028
- Light Truck Drivers12% now, 12% by 2028
- Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders20% now, 20% by 2028
- Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists0% now, 0% by 2028
- Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining5% now, 5% by 2028
- Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors6% now, 6% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).