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Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck. Requires commercial drivers' license. Includes tow truck drivers.

2,062,040 people do this job in the US. $58,640 a year.

now
15%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 15%
  • 0%
  • 85%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 15% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 15%. Today's estimate: 15%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 3% within reacho3, April 2025: 10% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 12% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 14% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 14% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 14% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 14% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 15% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 15% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 29 tasks from .

TaskKind
Drive trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons, including tractor-trailer combinations, to transport and deliver products, livestock, or other materials.Done daily by most who do it. 45%6.7 h1.7 h to 1.1 work daysStays with people
Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary.Done daily by most who do it. 5%50 min17 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order.Done daily by most who do it. 5%25 min13 min to 50 minStays with people
Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Done daily by most who do it. 4%17 min8 min to 38 min100%Half by now
Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods.Done daily by most who do it.3%25 min8 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Inspect loads to ensure that cargo is secure.Done daily by most who do it. 3%17 min8 min to 38 minStays with people
Secure cargo for transport, using ropes, blocks, chain, binders, or covers.Done daily by most who do it.3%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps.Done daily by most who do it.3%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned.Done daily by most who do it. 2%13 min4 min to 29 minStays with people
Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.Done daily by most who do it. 2%17 min8 min to 38 min100%Half by now
Couple or uncouple trailers by changing trailer jack positions, connecting or disconnecting air or electrical lines, or manipulating fifth-wheel locks.Done daily by most who do it. 2%17 min8 min to 33 minStays with people
Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.Done daily by most who do it. 2%13 min4 min to 25 min100%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).