Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 14% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 86% of the time, stays with people.
Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). May be required to unload truck. Requires commercial drivers' license. Includes tow truck drivers.
2,062,040 people do this job in the US. $58,640 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work4 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people35 h
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 4 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 35 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Keep hours and vehicle logs (about 2 h, a person checks); Plan and adjust routes (under an hour, a person checks); Check load documentation (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 5%
- 9%
- 2%
- 3%
- 81%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 14% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 14%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 29 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.03% to 0.019% (released February and March 2025); 0.011% to 0.012% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.03% | 364 of 708 | 3 of 29 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.019% | 429 of 703 | 2 of 29 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.011% | 448 of 655 | 2 of 29 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0074% | 521 of 672 | 2 of 29 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.012% | 473 of 677 | 2 of 29 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 29 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 29 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 86% of this job's working time as physical work. For 78% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 7% in a purpose-built cell, 71% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 1.51 of 3, the 19th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 14%
- No robot shown 8%
- In a purpose-built cell 7%
- In a structured facility 71%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
86% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Drive heavy trucks, the hands-on work, 45%
- Load and unload trucks, the hands-on work, 5%
- Check vehicle safety equipment, the hands-on work, 5%
- Follow dangerous goods procedures, the hands-on work, 3%
- Inspect loads for security, the hands-on work, 3%
- Secure cargo, the hands-on work, 3%
What becomes checking the machine
11% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 3% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Keep hours and vehicle logs, costly if wrong, 4%
- Plan and adjust routes, costly if wrong, 2%
- Check load documentation, costly if wrong, 2%
- Read maps and choose routes, costly if wrong, 2%
- Report defects, accidents and violations, costly if wrong, 1%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 81% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 29 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons, including tractor-trailer combinations, to transport and deliver products, livestock, or other materials.Driving the truck on the road.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Gatik Autonomous Delivery Network (26- and 30-ft box trucks) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 45% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 1.1 work days | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary.Moving freight by hand or with equipment.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Stretch (Boston Dynamics) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order.A walk-around inspection.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Entries in the logbook system.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods.Handling and hauling hazardous loads by the rules.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Highly automated transportation systems (regulatory status, HM-266 ANPRM) (PHMSA / FMCSA) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Inspect loads to ensure that cargo is secure.Checking the cargo in person.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Secure cargo for transport, using ropes, blocks, chain, binders, or covers.Tying down loads by hand.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps.Packing by hand.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Truck-Safe / FIX Truck-Safe automatic load securing system (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned.Backing and positioning the truck at the dock.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Outrider System (autonomous yard truck) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 13 min4 min to 29 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.Working out the route, with the navigation system.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Documents 50%, systems 50% | 100%Half by now |
| Couple or uncouple trailers by changing trailer jack positions, connecting or disconnecting air or electrical lines, or manipulating fifth-wheel locks.Hooking up lines and locks by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Outrider System / TrailerConnect robotic arm (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 17 min8 min to 33 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.Dispatch messages and calls.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Systems 50%, conversation 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators1% now, 1% by 2028
- Light Truck Drivers11% now, 11% by 2028
- Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders20% now, 20% by 2028
- Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists2% now, 2% by 2028
- Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining5% now, 5% by 2028
- Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors5% now, 5% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 14% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 14% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Keep hours and vehicle logs (100% of the task's time now); Plan and adjust routes (100% of the task's time now); and Check load documentation (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Drive heavy trucks; Load and unload trucks; and Check vehicle safety equipment. Together such tasks are about 81% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and signing off under your license. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 86% of the working time stays with people, 11% becomes checking a model's work and 3% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 86% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 78% of the working time, 1% in any setting. Its index is 1.51 of 3. One example: Idle Smart idle management system for "operate idle reduction systems". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 29 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.
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