Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors
In short: today's best AI models could do about 5% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 95% of the time, stays with people.
Collect and dump refuse or recyclable materials from containers into truck. May drive truck.
147,240 people do this job in the US. $49,690 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on2 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people38 h
Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 2 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 38 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Organize collection schedules (about 1 h); Fill out equipment reports (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 2%
- 2%
- 1%
- 0%
- 94%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 5% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 4%. Today's estimate: 5%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 14 tasks showed up.
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| Released March 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0016% | 664 of 672 | 1 of 14 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 94% of this job's working time as physical work. For 90% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 25% in a purpose-built cell, 42% in a structured facility, 24% in any setting. 1.80 of 3, the 8th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 6%
- No robot shown 4%
- In a purpose-built cell 25%
- In a structured facility 42%
- In any setting 24%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
95% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Drive the collection route, the hands-on work, 68%
- Dump loads at disposal sites, the hands-on work, 9%
- Make special pickups, the hands-on work, 6%
- Inspect the truck before the route, the hands-on work, 3%
- Clean the truck, the hands-on work, 2%
- Refuel and top up fluids, the hands-on work, 2%
What becomes checking the machine
1% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 4% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Fill out equipment reports, costly if wrong, 0.9%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 94% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 14 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive trucks, following established routes, through residential streets or alleys or through business or industrial areas.Driving the truck through the streets.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Westwell Q-Truck autonomous electric heavy truck (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 68% | 5 h2.5 h to 6.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Dump refuse or recyclable materials at disposal sites.Tipping the load at the site.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Cat MineStar Command for hauling (Caterpillar) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Make special pickups of recyclable materials, such as food scraps, used oil, discarded computers, or other electronic items.Collecting food scraps, oil and electronics by hand.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, AMP Cortex (AMP Robotics) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Organize schedules for refuse collection.Schedules worked out and entered.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 1.7 h50 min to 3.3 h | Documents 60%, systems 40% | 100%Half by now |
| Inspect trucks prior to beginning routes to ensure safe operating condition.Walking round the truck and checking it.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 17 min8 min to 25 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Clean trucks or compactor bodies after routes have been completed.Washing the truck and compactor body.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, InterClean Ultra Gantry / PWX Touchless Gantry vehicle wash system (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 25 min17 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Refuel trucks or add other fluids, such as oil or brake fluid.Fuel and fluids added by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Robofuel (Scott Automation + Robotics) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 13 min8 min to 25 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Operate equipment that compresses collected refuse.Running the compressing equipment.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Amrep automated side loader bodies (computer packer system) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 1% | 3 min1 min to 7 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Dismount garbage trucks to collect garbage and remount trucks to ride to the next collection point.Off and on the truck at each stop.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, McNeilus Zero Radius Automated Side Loader with CartSeeker Curbside Automation (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 1% | 3 min1 min to 7 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Communicate with dispatchers concerning delays, unsafe sites, accidents, equipment breakdowns, or other maintenance problems.Radio to the dispatcher.Done daily by most who do it. | 1.0% | 4 min3 min to 13 min | Conversation 100% | Stays with people |
| Operate automated or semi-automated hoisting devices that raise refuse bins and dump contents into openings in truck bodies.Running the hoist that lifts and dumps the bins.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, McNeilus Zero Radius Automated Side Loader with CartSeeker Curbside Automation (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 0.9% | 3 min1 min to 7 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Fill out defective equipment reports.Defect reports filled in.Done daily by most who do it. | 0.9% | 8 min4 min to 17 min | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Recycling and Reclamation Workers1% now, 1% by 2028
- Hazardous Materials Removal Workers2% now, 3% by 2028
- Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers14% now, 14% by 2028
- Recycling Coordinators52% now, 82% by 2028
- Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders20% now, 20% by 2028
- Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners6% now, 6% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 5% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 5% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Organize collection schedules (100% of the task's time now); Fill out equipment reports (100% of the task's time now); and Check road and weather conditions (50% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Drive the collection route; Dump loads at disposal sites; and Make special pickups. Together such tasks are about 95% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and signing off under your license. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 95% of the working time stays with people, 1% becomes checking a model's work and 4% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 94% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 90% of the working time, 24% in any setting. Its index is 1.80 of 3. One example: Amrep automated side loader bodies (computer packer system) for "operate the compactor". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 14 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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