Metro area, New York
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
9,492,000 people work in this area, at mean pay of $86,310 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 6 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 38%
- 25%
- 37%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 23% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 8,927,913 people in jobs so far, 94% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 3.9 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 1.8 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 1.5 billion hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 27%
- 10%
- 9%
- 16%
- 37%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 8,927,913 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft4,007,335 (45%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself3,422,952 (38%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts2,849,198 (32%)
- The conversations2,506,862 (28%)
- Judgment where errors are severe2,394,718 (27%)
- Signing off under your license941,972 (11%)
- Running AI inside the business systems767,050 (9%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization465,200 (5%)
- Handling protected records27,420 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 31%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 43% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 29% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 20% in a purpose-built cell, 9% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.40 of 3.
- Not physical 57%
- No robot shown 14%
- In a purpose-built cell 20%
- In a structured facility 9%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 50% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 125,570 | 64% | 168 million | $50K |
| General and Operations Managers | 177,850 | 45% | 166 million | $157K |
| Office Clerks, General | 136,580 | 56% | 161 million | $48K |
| Registered Nurses | 197,740 | 37% | 151 million | $120K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 122,680 | 59% | 150 million | $51K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 77,010 | 88% | 141 million | $61K |
| Software Developers | 121,000 | 48% | 121 million | $167K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 91,680 | 59% | 112 million | $94K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 95,180 | 54% | 108 million | $81K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 111,930 | 45% | 105 million | $106K |
| Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants | 76,950 | 64% | 103 million | $84K |
| Financial Managers | 89,960 | 52% | 97 million | $221K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 721 smaller jobs (4,728,980 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists50 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Software Developers40 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel39 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Evaluate financial reporting systems, accounting or collection procedures, or investment activities and make recommendations for changes to procedures, operating systems, budgets, or other financial control functions.Financial Managers36 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General34 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers34 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts33 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses33 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Develop computer information resources, providing for data security and control, strategic computing, and disaster recovery.Computer and Information Systems Managers33 million hours92% of the task within reach
- Prepare, examine, or analyze accounting records, financial statements, or other financial reports to assess accuracy, completeness, and conformance to reporting and procedural standards.Accountants and Auditors31 million hours100% of the task within reach
The regional report on New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 99% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in New York
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY534,550 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Rochester, NY494,280 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY449,410 people32% now, 39% by 2028
- Syracuse, NY300,130 people30% now, 35% by 2028
- Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY268,970 people28% now, 32% by 2028
- Southwest New York nonmetropolitan area177,340 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Central East New York nonmetropolitan area159,160 people26% now, 30% by 2028
- Capital/Northern New York nonmetropolitan area139,340 people27% now, 30% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 31% of the paid hours in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ are within reach of AI models now and 38% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (36% to 38% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Customer Service Representatives (125,570 people, 64% of their time, about 168 million hours a year); General and Operations Managers (177,850 people, 45% of their time, about 166 million hours a year); and Office Clerks, General (136,580 people, 56% of their time, about 161 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand (Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists, about 50 million hours a year); Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design (Software Developers, about 40 million hours a year); and Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications (Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel, about 39 million hours a year).
- What would people working in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ learn first?
- Among the 8,927,913 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (4,007,335 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (3,422,952 people); and briefing a model and checking its drafts (2,849,198 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 62% of their working time stays with people, 30% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 94% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.