Metro area, New York
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
9,492,000 people work in this area, at mean pay of $86,310 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 4.7 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 42%
- 9%
- 49%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 24%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 50% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 125,570 | 67% | 174 million | $50K |
| Office Clerks, General | 136,580 | 58% | 165 million | $48K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 91,680 | 69% | 131 million | $94K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 74,190 | 83% | 128 million | $45K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 77,010 | 76% | 122 million | $61K |
| Personal Care Aides | 322,350 | 17% | 113 million | $40K |
| Cashiers | 173,830 | 30% | 109 million | $36K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 122,680 | 39% | 100 million | $51K |
| Home Health Aides | 322,350 | 14% | 96 million | $40K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 95,180 | 47% | 93 million | $81K |
| Registered Nurses | 197,740 | 21% | 86 million | $120K |
| Retail Salespersons | 202,080 | 20% | 84 million | $38K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 721 smaller jobs (4,728,980 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Provide patients and families with emotional support and instruction in areas such as caring for infants, preparing healthy meals, living independently, or adapting to disability or illness.Home Health Aides58 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses55 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers50 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons49 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Participate in case reviews, consulting with the team caring for the client, to evaluate the client's needs and plan for continuing services.Personal Care Aides46 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists45 million hours90% of the task within reach
- Coordinate conferences, meetings, or special events, such as luncheons or graduation ceremonies.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive45 million hours89% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel39 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager.Home Health Aides38 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them.Personal Care Aides35 million hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in New York
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY534,550 people25% now, 38% by 2028
- Rochester, NY494,280 people25% now, 39% by 2028
- Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY449,410 people24% now, 41% by 2028
- Syracuse, NY300,130 people24% now, 38% by 2028
- Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY268,970 people24% now, 35% by 2028
- Southwest New York nonmetropolitan area177,340 people23% now, 34% by 2028
- Central East New York nonmetropolitan area159,160 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- Capital/Northern New York nonmetropolitan area139,340 people23% now, 33% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works