Metro area, New York
Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY
268,970 people work in this area, at mean pay of $67,700 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 119 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 34%
- 18%
- 48%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 53% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 3,980 | 64% | 5.3 million | $46K |
| Office Clerks, General | 3,660 | 54% | 4.1 million | $44K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2,530 | 78% | 4.1 million | $56K |
| Retail Salespersons | 9,890 | 19% | 4 million | $36K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 2,040 | 81% | 3.4 million | $46K |
| Registered Nurses | 5,760 | 28% | 3.3 million | $103K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 3,620 | 43% | 3.2 million | $48K |
| General and Operations Managers | 5,430 | 23% | 2.6 million | $102K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 6,500 | 19% | 2.6 million | $40K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 1,770 | 59% | 2.2 million | $39K |
| Cashiers | 5,350 | 19% | 2.1 million | $35K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 3,140 | 30% | 1.9 million | $82K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 443 smaller jobs (121,190 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons1.2 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand979,116 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses965,073 hours60% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General916,733 hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives900,773 hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives830,820 hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks822,776 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants817,155 hours100% of the task within reach
- Coordinate conferences, meetings, or special events, such as luncheons or graduation ceremonies.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive792,831 hours53% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers786,638 hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in New York
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ9,492,000 people22% now, 38% by 2028
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY534,550 people23% now, 36% by 2028
- Rochester, NY494,280 people23% now, 37% by 2028
- Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY449,410 people23% now, 40% by 2028
- Syracuse, NY300,130 people23% now, 36% by 2028
- Southwest New York nonmetropolitan area177,340 people21% now, 32% by 2028
- Central East New York nonmetropolitan area159,160 people21% now, 31% by 2028
- Capital/Northern New York nonmetropolitan area139,340 people22% now, 31% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works