Nonmetro area, New York
Southwest New York nonmetropolitan area
177,340 people work in this area, at mean pay of $59,750 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 75 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 33%
- 18%
- 50%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 21%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 51% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2,060 | 78% | 3.3 million | $49K |
| Office Clerks, General | 2,780 | 54% | 3.1 million | $40K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,840 | 64% | 2.5 million | $43K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 2,680 | 43% | 2.4 million | $45K |
| Retail Salespersons | 5,240 | 19% | 2.1 million | $35K |
| Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 2,950 | 30% | 1.8 million | $63K |
| Cashiers | 4,420 | 19% | 1.7 million | $34K |
| Registered Nurses | 2,900 | 28% | 1.7 million | $88K |
| General and Operations Managers | 3,210 | 23% | 1.5 million | $93K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 3,120 | 19% | 1.2 million | $37K |
| Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education | 1,840 | 32% | 1.2 million | $64K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 1,460 | 40% | 1.2 million | $44K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 422 smaller jobs (82,290 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General696,317 hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks669,928 hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers649,896 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons634,933 hours50% of the task within reach
- Coordinate conferences, meetings, or special events, such as luncheons or graduation ceremonies.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive586,958 hours53% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders584,248 hours50% of the task within reach
- Use computers for various applications, such as database management or word processing.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive535,297 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses485,887 hours60% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers463,082 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare objectives and outlines for courses of study, following curriculum guidelines or requirements of states and schools.Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education463,022 hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in New York
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ9,492,000 people22% now, 38% by 2028
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY534,550 people23% now, 36% by 2028
- Rochester, NY494,280 people23% now, 37% by 2028
- Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY449,410 people23% now, 40% by 2028
- Syracuse, NY300,130 people23% now, 36% by 2028
- Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY268,970 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Central East New York nonmetropolitan area159,160 people21% now, 31% by 2028
- Capital/Northern New York nonmetropolitan area139,340 people22% now, 31% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works