Industry group, 5621
Waste Collection
222,030 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $57,640 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 84 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 20%
- 9%
- 71%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 218,383 people in jobs so far, 98% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 45 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 39 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 26 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 11%
- 9%
- 6%
- 3%
- 71%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 218,383 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft177,577 (81%)
- Judgment where errors are severe147,420 (68%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself36,887 (17%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts22,747 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems20,680 (9%)
- The conversations13,507 (6%)
- Signing off under your license1,530 (1%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization440 (under 1%)
- Handling protected records350 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 19%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 73% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 64% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 19% in a purpose-built cell, 36% in a structured facility, 9% in any setting. 1.19 of 3.
- Not physical 27%
- No robot shown 9%
- In a purpose-built cell 19%
- In a structured facility 36%
- In any setting 9%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 32 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 43,490 | 14% | 12 million | $55K |
| Office Clerks, General | 7,920 | 56% | 9.3 million | $46K |
| Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors | 76,410 | 5% | 7.3 million | $51K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 4,880 | 64% | 6.5 million | $45K |
| General and Operations Managers | 6,290 | 45% | 5.9 million | $99K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 4,250 | 59% | 5.2 million | $63K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 2,710 | 73% | 4.1 million | $57K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,830 | 88% | 3.4 million | $48K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 14,960 | 9% | 2.8 million | $39K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 2,130 | 59% | 2.6 million | $43K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 2,387 | 45% | 2.2 million | $75K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 1,870 | 54% | 2.1 million | $68K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 78 smaller jobs (10,640 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Organize schedules for refuse collection.Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors5.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers3.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers1.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel1.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance1.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers1.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Fill out defective equipment reports.Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors1.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Waste Collection is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 19% of the paid hours in Waste Collection are within reach of AI models now and 20% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Waste Collection carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (43,490 people, 14% of their time, about 12 million hours a year); Office Clerks, General (7,920 people, 56% of their time, about 9.3 million hours a year); and Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors (76,410 people, 5% of their time, about 7.3 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Waste Collection carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Organize schedules for refuse collection (Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors, about 5.4 million hours a year); Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations (Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, about 3.7 million hours a year); and Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets (Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand, about 2.1 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Waste Collection learn first?
- Among the 218,383 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (177,577 people); judgment where errors are severe (147,420 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (36,887 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 80% of their working time stays with people, 13% becomes checking a model's work and 7% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Waste Collection (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 98% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.