Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators
In short: today's best AI models could do about 1% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 99% of the time, stays with people.
Operate industrial trucks or tractors equipped to move materials around a warehouse, storage yard, factory, construction site, or similar location.
774,420 people do this job in the US. $46,420 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people39 h
Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 39 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Weigh materials and record data (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 0%
- 1%
- 0%
- 0%
- 99%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 1% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 1%. Today's estimate: 1%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 9 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 100% of this job's working time as physical work. For 100% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 4% in a purpose-built cell, 96% in a structured facility. 1.96 of 3, the 5th highest of the 923 jobs.
- In a purpose-built cell 4%
- In a structured facility 96%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
99% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Load and unload materials, the hands-on work, 22%
- Check loads and move them safely, the hands-on work, 20%
- Drive industrial trucks and tractors, the hands-on work, 17%
- Operate lifting devices, the hands-on work, 15%
- Position lifts and secure loads, the hands-on work, 13%
- Do routine vehicle maintenance, the hands-on work, 4%
What becomes checking the machine
No desk work within reach by then in tasks where a mistake costs something. Another 1% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 99% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 9 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manually or mechanically load or unload materials from pallets, skids, platforms, cars, lifting devices, or other transport vehicles.Moving goods by hand or machine.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Fox Robotics FoxBot autonomous trailer loader/unloader (ATL) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 22% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Inspect product load for accuracy and safely move it around the warehouse or facility to ensure timely and complete delivery.Looking the load over and driving it to its place.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, TWA Reach / TWA Extended Reach (Third Wave Automation) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 20% | 21 min13 min to 38 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Move controls to drive gasoline- or electric-powered trucks, cars, or tractors and transport materials between loading, processing, and storage areas.Driving powered equipment around the site.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Seegrid Palion AMRs (autonomous fork trucks and tow tractors) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 17% | 17 min8 min to 29 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Move levers or controls that operate lifting devices, such as forklifts, lift beams with swivel-hooks, hoists, or elevating platforms, to load, unload, transport, or stack material.Working the controls of a forklift or hoist, which takes a certified operator.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Fox Robotics FoxBot autonomous trailer loader/unloader (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 15% | 13 min4 min to 29 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Position lifting devices under, over, or around loaded pallets, skids, or boxes and secure material or products for transport to designated areas.Placing the forks and securing the load.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Seegrid Palion Lift RS1 / CR1 AMRs (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 13% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Weigh materials or products and record weight or other production data on tags or labels.Weighing by hand, then marking the tag or record.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, OTTO 1500 AMR (OTTO by Rockwell Automation) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 8 min4 min to 17 min | Hands-on 70%, systems 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Perform routine maintenance on vehicles or auxiliary equipment, such as cleaning, lubricating, recharging batteries, fueling, or replacing liquefied-gas tank.Cleaning, fueling and charging by hand.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Rocsys hands-free charging device (with Rocsys Smart Cover) + Taylor ZLC-996 electric container handler (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Operate or tend automatic stacking, loading, packaging, or cutting machines.Running the machine on the floor.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, KUKA AMR fleet + Lantech AMR-integrated stretch wrapper (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Turn valves and open chutes to dump, spray, or release materials from dump cars or storage bins into hoppers.Working valves and chutes by hand.Done more than monthly by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Automated Feed Mill Control System (Sterling Systems & Controls) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 8 min4 min to 21 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Hoist and Winch Operators0% now, 0% by 2028
- Crane and Tower Operators8% now, 8% by 2028
- Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders20% now, 20% by 2028
- Loading and Moving Machine Operators, Underground Mining5% now, 5% by 2028
- Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators3% now, 3% by 2028
- Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand9% now, 9% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 1% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 1% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Weigh materials and record data (30% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Load and unload materials; Check loads and move them safely; and Drive industrial trucks and tractors. Together such tasks are about 95% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; signing off under your license; and judgment where errors are severe. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 99% of the working time stays with people, 0% becomes checking a model's work and 1% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 100% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 100% of the working time, 96% in a structured facility. Its index is 1.96 of 3. One example: Fox Robotics FoxBot autonomous trailer loader/unloader (ATL) for "load and unload materials". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 9 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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