Industry group, 4240A1
Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only)
1,038,880 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $64,340 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 615 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 32%
- 18%
- 50%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 21% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 1,011,941 people in jobs so far, 97% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 394 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 216 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 198 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 22%
- 11%
- 10%
- 8%
- 50%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 1,011,941 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft614,857 (61%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts278,673 (28%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself264,124 (26%)
- Judgment where errors are severe253,125 (25%)
- The conversations244,373 (24%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization153,260 (15%)
- Running AI inside the business systems61,330 (6%)
- Signing off under your license30,350 (3%)
- Handling protected records510 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 29%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 53% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 48% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 22% in a purpose-built cell, 20% in a structured facility, 6% in any setting. 0.79 of 3.
- Not physical 47%
- No robot shown 5%
- In a purpose-built cell 22%
- In a structured facility 20%
- In any setting 6%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 89% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 149,860 | 46% | 145 million | $63K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 87,770 | 19% | 35 million | $44K |
| Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers | 45,120 | 34% | 32 million | $44K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 102,160 | 14% | 29 million | $61K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 13,270 | 88% | 24 million | $50K |
| General and Operations Managers | 23,700 | 45% | 22 million | $112K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 19,970 | 53% | 22 million | $46K |
| Office Clerks, General | 15,510 | 56% | 18 million | $45K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 13,480 | 64% | 18 million | $47K |
| Sales Managers | 19,810 | 42% | 17 million | $127K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 85,510 | 9% | 16 million | $44K |
| Driver/Sales Workers | 82,170 | 9% | 15 million | $50K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 173 smaller jobs (116,710 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products34 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative duties, such as preparing sales budgets and reports, keeping sales records, and filing expense account reports.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products23 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Identify prospective customers by using business directories, following leads from existing clients, participating in organizations and clubs, and attending trade shows and conferences.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products18 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Prepare drawings, estimates, and bids that meet specific customer needs.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products16 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan commercial displays to entice and appeal to customers.Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers16 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare sales contracts and order forms.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record sales or delivery information on daily sales or delivery record.Driver/Sales Workers10 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers8.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, assemble, and stock product displays in retail stores, or make recommendations to retailers regarding product displays, promotional programs, and advertising.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products8.3 million hours20% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4241, 4247, and 4249 only)537,960 people32% now, 35% by 2028
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4242 and 4246 only)401,950 people39% now, 47% by 2028
- Apparel, Piece Goods, and Notions Merchant Wholesalers136,380 people41% now, 48% by 2028
- Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers73,060 people25% now, 28% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only) is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 29% of the paid hours in Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only) are within reach of AI models now and 32% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only) carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products (149,860 people, 46% of their time, about 145 million hours a year); Stockers and Order Fillers (87,770 people, 19% of their time, about 35 million hours a year); and Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers (45,120 people, 34% of their time, about 32 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only) carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales (Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products, about 34 million hours a year); Perform administrative duties, such as preparing sales budgets and reports, keeping sales records, and filing expense account reports (Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products, about 23 million hours a year); and Identify prospective customers by using business directories, following leads from existing clients, participating in organizations and clubs, and attending trade shows and conferences (Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products, about 18 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only) learn first?
- Among the 1,011,941 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (614,857 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (278,673 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (264,124 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 67% of their working time stays with people, 20% becomes checking a model's work and 12% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only) (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 97% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.