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Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products

Sell goods for wholesalers or manufacturers to businesses or groups of individuals. Work requires substantial knowledge of items sold.

1,238,190 people do this job in the US. $72,080 a year.

now
44%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 52%
  • 21%
  • 27%
63%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 52% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 39%. Today's estimate: 44%.

0%25%50%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 1% within reacho3, April 2025: 8% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 11% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 17% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 17% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 20% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 21% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 39% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 44% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 18 tasks from .

TaskKind
Plan, assemble, and stock product displays in retail stores, or make recommendations to retailers regarding product displays, promotional programs, and advertising.Done daily by most who do it.13%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Identify prospective customers by using business directories, following leads from existing clients, participating in organizations and clubs, and attending trade shows and conferences.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.12%1.7 h25 min to 4.2 hStays with people
Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.11%1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h77%Half by now
Perform administrative duties, such as preparing sales budgets and reports, keeping sales records, and filing expense account reports.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.7%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h65%Half by now
Negotiate details of contracts and payments.Done daily by most who do it.6%1.1 h25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Contact regular and prospective customers to demonstrate products, explain product features, and solicit orders.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.6%50 min17 min to 2.5 h87%Half by now
Recommend products to customers, based on customers' needs and interests.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.6%25 min8 min to 1.3 h97%Half by now
Negotiate with retail merchants to improve product exposure, such as shelf positioning and advertising.Done daily by most who do it.5%1.1 h25 min to 2.1 hStays with people
Prepare drawings, estimates, and bids that meet specific customer needs.Done daily by most who do it.5%1.3 h25 min to 4.2 h69%Half by now
Arrange and direct delivery and installation of products and equipment.Done daily by most who do it.5%1.7 h25 min to 4.2 hStays with people
Consult with clients after sales or contract signings to resolve problems and to provide ongoing support.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.4%38 min13 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Estimate or quote prices, credit or contract terms, warranties, and delivery dates.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task.4%25 min13 min to 1.7 h98%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.