Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products
In short: today's best AI models could do about 46% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 47% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 53% of the time, stays with people.
Sell goods for wholesalers or manufacturers to businesses or groups of individuals. Work requires substantial knowledge of items sold.
1,238,190 people do this job in the US. $72,080 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on12 h
- A person checks AI's work7 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people21 h
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 12 hours, 7 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 21 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Monitor the market and competitors (about 4 h); Do sales administration (about 3 h); Identify prospective customers (about 2 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 34%
- 13%
- 23%
- 20%
- 10%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 46% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 30%. Today's estimate: 46%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 1.5% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 16th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 5 of its 18 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.13% to 0.12% (released February and March 2025); 0.18% to 0.26% (August 2025 to February 2026); 1.4% to 1.5% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.13% | 137 of 708 | 8 of 18 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.12% | 137 of 703 | 8 of 18 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.18% | 101 of 655 | 5 of 18 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.17% | 97 of 672 | 9 of 18 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.26% | 77 of 677 | 13 of 18 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 1.4% | 18 of 434 | 5 of 18 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 1.5% | 16 of 447 | 5 of 18 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 8% of this job's working time as physical work. For 8% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 5% in a purpose-built cell, 3% in a structured facility. 0.10 of 3, the 520th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 93%
- In a purpose-built cell 5%
- In a structured facility 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
53% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Build and stock retail displays, the hands-on work, 11%
- Identify prospective customers, the in-person work, 6%
- Call on customers to demonstrate and sell, the in-person work, 6%
- Recommend products to customers, the conversation, 6%
- Negotiate shelf space with retailers, the in-person work, 5%
- Support clients after the sale, the conversation, 4%
What becomes checking the machine
18% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 29% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Prepare drawings, estimates and bids, costly if wrong, 5%
- Prepare sales contracts and order forms, costly if wrong, 4%
- Obtain credit information on customers, costly if wrong, 2%
- Arrange delivery and installation, costly if wrong, 2%
- Quote prices, terms and delivery dates, costly if wrong, 2%
- Negotiate contracts and payments, costly if wrong, 2%
What to learn
- The conversations. About 43% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 34% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Running AI inside the business systems. About 13% of the time is work inside business systems, which a model can do only once it is connected: knowing the systems well enough to set that up and watch it.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 18 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan, assemble, and stock product displays in retail stores, or make recommendations to retailers regarding product displays, promotional programs, and advertising.Setting up displays in the store, with advice to the retailer.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Comau NJ40 / NS12 robotic display-building line (Siscodata integration) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 13% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | Hands-on 60%, documents 20%, in person 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Identify prospective customers by using business directories, following leads from existing clients, participating in organizations and clubs, and attending trade shows and conferences.Research and lead lists, with calls and events.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 12% | 1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h | Documents 50%, in person 30%, conversation 20% | 48%Desk part half by now |
| Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Reading and summarizing market information.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 11% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 100% | 99%Half by now |
| Perform administrative duties, such as preparing sales budgets and reports, keeping sales records, and filing expense account reports.Reports and budgets written, records and expenses entered.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 7% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 50%, systems 50% | 99%Half by now |
| Negotiate details of contracts and payments.Negotiation with the customer, with terms written up.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 1.1 h25 min to 2.5 h | Conversation 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Contact regular and prospective customers to demonstrate products, explain product features, and solicit orders.Visits to show the product, and calls between them.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 6% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | In person 60%, conversation 40% | Stays with people |
| Recommend products to customers, based on customers' needs and interests.Selling in conversation, by phone and in person.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 6% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | Conversation 50%, in person 50% | Stays with people |
| Negotiate with retail merchants to improve product exposure, such as shelf positioning and advertising.Negotiation in the store and by phone.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.1 h25 min to 2.1 h | In person 60%, conversation 40% | Stays with people |
| Prepare drawings, estimates, and bids that meet specific customer needs.Document work for a customer.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.3 h25 min to 4.2 h | Documents 100% | 98%Half by now |
| Arrange and direct delivery and installation of products and equipment.Calls to line up delivery, with the bookings.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h | Conversation 60%, systems 40% | 39%Desk part half by now |
| Consult with clients after sales or contract signings to resolve problems and to provide ongoing support.Calls and visits to sort out problems.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 4% | 38 min13 min to 2.5 h | Conversation 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Estimate or quote prices, credit or contract terms, warranties, and delivery dates.Working up the quote, and giving it to the customer.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 4% | 25 min13 min to 1.7 h | Documents 50%, conversation 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products43% now, 44% by 2028
- Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel59% now, 60% by 2028
- Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products60% now, 62% by 2028
- Buyers and Purchasing Agents, Farm Products39% now, 40% by 2028
- Advertising Sales Agents56% now, 61% by 2028
- Sales Engineers43% now, 58% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
- Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (4232, 4233, 4235, 4236, 4237, and 4239 only)225,260 people
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only)149,860 people
- Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers112,430 people
- Wholesale Trade Agents and Brokers111,760 people
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4241, 4247, and 4249 only)62,010 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 46% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 47% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Monitor the market and competitors (99% of the task's time now); Do sales administration (99% of the task's time now); and Identify prospective customers (48% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Call on customers to demonstrate and sell; Recommend products to customers; and Negotiate shelf space with retailers. Together such tasks are about 26% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the conversations; dealing with people outside the organization; and briefing a model and checking its drafts. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 53% of the working time stays with people, 18% becomes checking a model's work and 29% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 1.5% went to this job's tasks, the 16th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 5 of its 18 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 63%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 7% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 8% of the working time, 3% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.10 of 3. One example: Tally (Simbe Store Intelligence) for "check stock and reorder". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 18 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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