Industry group, 4230A1
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (4232, 4233, 4235, 4236, 4237, and 4239 only)
1,503,920 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $71,490 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 810 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 42%
- 18%
- 40%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 23%. Today's estimate: 26%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 79% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 225,260 | 36% | 168 million | $66K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 41,180 | 64% | 55 million | $50K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 26,770 | 78% | 43 million | $51K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 35,520 | 53% | 39 million | $45K |
| Office Clerks, General | 33,640 | 54% | 38 million | $46K |
| General and Operations Managers | 73,990 | 23% | 35 million | $108K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 141,690 | 9% | 27 million | $43K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 60,940 | 19% | 24 million | $42K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 63,580 | 14% | 18 million | $57K |
| Counter and Rental Clerks | 16,050 | 53% | 18 million | $48K |
| Sales Managers | 28,580 | 28% | 17 million | $138K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 16,400 | 43% | 15 million | $48K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 217 smaller jobs (310,730 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products51 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative duties, such as preparing sales budgets and reports, keeping sales records, and filing expense account reports.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products34 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Identify prospective customers by using business directories, following leads from existing clients, participating in organizations and clubs, and attending trade shows and conferences.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products27 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Prepare drawings, estimates, and bids that meet specific customer needs.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products24 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand20 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare sales contracts and order forms.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products17 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, assemble, and stock product displays in retail stores, or make recommendations to retailers regarding product displays, promotional programs, and advertising.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products12 million hours20% of the task within reach
- Obtain credit information about prospective customers.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks9.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers9.5 million hours40% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works