Subsector, 423
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
3,392,640 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $77,270 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 2 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 45%
- 11%
- 44%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 25%. Today's estimate: 28%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 75% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 418,260 | 44% | 384 million | $68K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 103,580 | 67% | 143 million | $49K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products | 105,870 | 47% | 103 million | $98K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 58,170 | 76% | 92 million | $51K |
| Office Clerks, General | 74,650 | 58% | 90 million | $46K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 75,730 | 43% | 68 million | $45K |
| General and Operations Managers | 150,960 | 19% | 58 million | $113K |
| Sales Managers | 71,390 | 35% | 51 million | $144K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 219,680 | 11% | 51 million | $43K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 118,990 | 18% | 44 million | $43K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 27,620 | 69% | 39 million | $81K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 40,140 | 47% | 39 million | $74K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 320 smaller jobs (829,280 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products95 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative duties, such as preparing sales budgets and reports, keeping sales records, and filing expense account reports.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products64 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Contact regular and prospective customers to demonstrate products, explain product features, and solicit orders.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products49 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend products to customers, based on customers' needs and interests.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products48 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare drawings, estimates, and bids that meet specific customer needs.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products45 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Estimate or quote prices, credit or contract terms, warranties, and delivery dates.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products33 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare sales contracts and order forms.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products31 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand31 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Check stock levels and reorder merchandise as necessary.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products27 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers27 million hours99% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (4232, 4233, 4235, 4236, 4237, and 4239 only)1,503,920 people28% now, 42% by 2028
- Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers774,540 people28% now, 41% by 2028
- Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers745,720 people31% now, 56% by 2028
- Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies Merchant Wholesalers368,470 people24% now, 34% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works