Industry group, 4240A2
Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4242 and 4246 only)
401,950 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $105,890 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 224 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 51%
- 19%
- 31%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 24%. Today's estimate: 28%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 78% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products | 47,370 | 47% | 46 million | $137K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 36,120 | 36% | 27 million | $81K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 12,590 | 64% | 17 million | $50K |
| General and Operations Managers | 19,170 | 23% | 9.1 million | $156K |
| Sales Managers | 13,530 | 28% | 7.9 million | $188K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 6,750 | 53% | 7.4 million | $46K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 4,330 | 78% | 7 million | $57K |
| Office Clerks, General | 4,910 | 54% | 5.5 million | $47K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 13,370 | 19% | 5.3 million | $42K |
| Pharmacy Technicians | 8,510 | 26% | 4.5 million | $46K |
| Pharmacists | 5,870 | 35% | 4.3 million | $139K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 12,780 | 14% | 3.6 million | $62K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 187 smaller jobs (86,150 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Prepare sales presentations or proposals to explain product specifications or applications.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute customer's installation or production costs and estimate savings from new services, products, or equipment.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products8.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products8.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative duties, such as preparing sales budgets and reports, keeping sales records, and filing expense account reports.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products5.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Emphasize product features, based on analyses of customers' needs and on technical knowledge of product capabilities and limitations.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products5.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Identify prospective customers by using business directories, following leads from existing clients, participating in organizations and clubs, and attending trade shows and conferences.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products4.3 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Prepare and submit sales contracts for orders.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products4.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Quote prices, credit terms, or other bid specifications.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists3.9 million hours90% of the task within reach
- Prepare drawings, estimates, and bids that meet specific customer needs.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products3.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only)1,038,880 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4241, 4247, and 4249 only)537,960 people26% now, 36% by 2028
- Apparel, Piece Goods, and Notions Merchant Wholesalers136,380 people29% now, 48% by 2028
- Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers73,060 people20% now, 29% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works