Industry group, 4245
Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers
73,060 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $55,610 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 37 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 28%
- 14%
- 58%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 54,370 people in jobs so far, 74% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 21 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 14 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 11 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 22%
- 13%
- 11%
- 7%
- 48%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 54,370 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft32,080 (59%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself18,790 (35%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts12,687 (23%)
- The conversations12,373 (23%)
- Judgment where errors are severe9,790 (18%)
- Running AI inside the business systems7,640 (14%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization4,440 (8%)
- Signing off under your license780 (1%)
- Handling protected records70 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 25%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 59% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 52% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 21% in a purpose-built cell, 28% in a structured facility, 3% in any setting. 0.85 of 3.
- Not physical 41%
- No robot shown 8%
- In a purpose-built cell 21%
- In a structured facility 28%
- In any setting 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 87% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General and Operations Managers | 4,460 | 45% | 4.2 million | $94K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 4,080 | 46% | 3.9 million | $74K |
| Office Clerks, General | 3,220 | 56% | 3.8 million | $38K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,730 | 88% | 3.2 million | $46K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 6,070 | 14% | 1.7 million | $48K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 1,230 | 59% | 1.5 million | $44K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 8,000 | 9% | 1.5 million | $38K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 700 | 64% | 937,664 | $45K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 760 | 54% | 859,959 | $66K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 750 | 45% | 703,581 | $80K |
| Purchasing Agents, Except Wholesale, Retail, and Farm Products | 513 | 65% | 695,717 | $77K |
| Conveyor Operators and Tenders | 3,320 | 9% | 649,126 | $44K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 77 smaller jobs (9,110 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products927,139 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General806,525 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative duties, such as preparing sales budgets and reports, keeping sales records, and filing expense account reports.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products621,629 hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers570,375 hours40% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks562,610 hours100% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers545,290 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers517,018 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers513,712 hours80% of the task within reach
- Identify prospective customers by using business directories, following leads from existing clients, participating in organizations and clubs, and attending trade shows and conferences.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products489,962 hours50% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only)1,038,880 people29% now, 32% by 2028
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4241, 4247, and 4249 only)537,960 people32% now, 35% by 2028
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4242 and 4246 only)401,950 people39% now, 47% by 2028
- Apparel, Piece Goods, and Notions Merchant Wholesalers136,380 people41% now, 48% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 25% of the paid hours in Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers are within reach of AI models now and 28% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): General and Operations Managers (4,460 people, 45% of their time, about 4.2 million hours a year); Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products (4,080 people, 46% of their time, about 3.9 million hours a year); and Office Clerks, General (3,220 people, 56% of their time, about 3.8 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets (Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand, about 1.1 million hours a year); Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales (Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products, about 927,139 hours a year); and Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports (Office Clerks, General, about 806,525 hours a year).
- What would people working in Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers learn first?
- Among the 54,370 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (32,080 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (18,790 people); and briefing a model and checking its drafts (12,687 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 65% of their working time stays with people, 23% becomes checking a model's work and 11% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Farm Product Raw Material Merchant Wholesalers (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 74% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.