Driver/Sales Workers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 8% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 92% of the time, stays with people.
Drive truck or other vehicle over established routes or within an established territory and sell or deliver goods, such as food products, including restaurant take-out items, or pick up or deliver items such as commercial laundry. May also take orders, collect payment, or stock merchandise at point of delivery.
409,180 people do this job in the US. $38,770 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on2 h
- A person checks AI's work1 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people37 h
Driver/Sales Workers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 2 hours, 1 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 37 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Record daily sales and deliveries (about 2 h); Write up orders and contracts (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 1%
- 8%
- 1%
- 9%
- 81%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 8% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 8%. Today's estimate: 9%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 11 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.017% to 0.0098% (released February and March 2025); 0.021% to 0.022% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.017% | 465 of 708 | 1 of 11 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0098% | 508 of 703 | 1 of 11 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.021% | 360 of 655 | 2 of 11 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.018% | 398 of 672 | 2 of 11 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.022% | 392 of 677 | 2 of 11 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 11 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 11 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 84% of this job's working time as physical work. For 75% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 24% in a purpose-built cell, 1% in a structured facility, 49% in any setting. 1.75 of 3, the 9th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 16%
- No robot shown 9%
- In a purpose-built cell 24%
- In a structured facility 1%
- In any setting 49%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
92% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Drive the delivery route, the hands-on work, 51%
- Sell food from the truck, the in-person work, 10%
- Maintain the truck and machines, the hands-on work, 9%
- Service vending machines, the hands-on work, 7%
- Set up displays and promotions, the hands-on work, 6%
- Resolve customer complaints, the in-person work, 3%
What becomes checking the machine
2% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 6% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Write up orders and contracts, costly if wrong, 1%
- Plan the route and load the truck, costly if wrong, 0.6%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 81% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 11 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive trucks to deliver such items as food, medical supplies, or newspapers.Driving the route and dropping the goods.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Waymo Driver (Jaguar I-Pace) on DoorDash Autonomous Delivery Platform (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 51% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Sell food specialties, such as sandwiches and beverages, to office workers and patrons of sports events.Serving and selling food to customers who walk up.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Neolix autonomous delivery/vending vehicle (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | In person 50%, hands-on 50% | Stays with people |
| Maintain trucks and food-dispensing equipment and clean inside of machines that dispense food or beverages.Cleaning and upkeep by hand.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Collect coins from vending machines, refill machines, and remove aged merchandise.Emptying the coin box, restocking and pulling old stock.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Arrange merchandise and sales promotion displays or issue sales promotion materials to customers.Arranging stock and displays at the customer's site.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Tally (Simbe Robotics) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 33 min13 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Record sales or delivery information on daily sales or delivery record.Entries on the route sheet or handheld.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 6% | 17 min8 min to 25 min | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Listen to and resolve customers' complaints regarding products or services.Hearing the complaint at the stop and sorting it out.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 3% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | In person 70%, conversation 30% | Stays with people |
| Review lists of dealers, customers, or station drops and load trucks.A look at the drop list, then loading the truck.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Symbotic system (SymBot, robotic palletizers) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.1 h | Hands-on 80%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Write customer orders and sales contracts according to company guidelines.Filling in the order or contract with the customer there.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 2% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Systems 70%, in person 30% | 70%Desk part half by now |
| Inform regular customers of new products or services and price changes.A word with the customer at the delivery.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 1% | 8 min4 min to 17 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Collect money from customers, make change, and record transactions on customer receipts.Taking the money at the drop and writing the receipt.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Glory CASHINFINITY CI-10X point-of-sale cash recycler (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 1.0% | 4 min2 min to 8 min | Hands-on 50%, systems 30%, in person 20% | 30%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Light Truck Drivers11% now, 11% by 2028
- Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks53% now, 53% by 2028
- Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors, and Related Workers31% now, 31% by 2028
- Counter and Rental Clerks23% now, 23% by 2028
- Couriers and Messengers7% now, 7% by 2028
- Stockers and Order Fillers19% now, 19% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Driver/Sales Workers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 9% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 9% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Driver/Sales Workers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Record daily sales and deliveries (100% of the task's time now); Write up orders and contracts (70% of the task's time now); and Plan the route and load the truck (20% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Driver/Sales Workers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Drive the delivery route; Sell food from the truck; and Maintain the truck and machines. Together such tasks are about 88% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Driver/Sales Workers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and dealing with people outside the organization. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 92% of the working time stays with people, 2% becomes checking a model's work and 6% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Driver/Sales Workers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 3%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Driver/Sales Workers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 84% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 75% of the working time, 49% in any setting. Its index is 1.75 of 3. One example: Waymo Driver (Jaguar I-Pace) on DoorDash Autonomous Delivery Platform for "drive the delivery route". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 11 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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