Industry group, 4450A1
Food and Beverage Retailers (4451 and 4452 only)
3,075,680 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $39,460 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 1.4 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 23%
- 20%
- 57%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 21% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 3,039,380 people in jobs so far, 99% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 737 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 690 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 274 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 12%
- 11%
- 5%
- 15%
- 57%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 3,039,380 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft2,494,427 (82%)
- The conversations1,331,020 (44%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts1,061,980 (35%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself540,623 (18%)
- Judgment where errors are severe302,420 (10%)
- Running AI inside the business systems144,810 (5%)
- Signing off under your license21,050 (1%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization12,260 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 67% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 64% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 44% in a purpose-built cell, 20% in a structured facility. 0.84 of 3.
- Not physical 33%
- No robot shown 4%
- In a purpose-built cell 44%
- In a structured facility 20%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 28 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashiers | 858,370 | 19% | 330 million | $34K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 655,900 | 19% | 263 million | $36K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 171,090 | 49% | 175 million | $51K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 99,440 | 64% | 133 million | $35K |
| Retail Salespersons | 143,130 | 23% | 68 million | $36K |
| General and Operations Managers | 46,470 | 45% | 43 million | $77K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 34,940 | 48% | 35 million | $47K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 29,030 | 54% | 33 million | $50K |
| Pharmacy Technicians | 37,870 | 34% | 27 million | $41K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 26,890 | 48% | 27 million | $51K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 14,320 | 88% | 26 million | $40K |
| Bakers | 60,520 | 19% | 24 million | $37K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 125 smaller jobs (149,070 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers126 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers90 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Calculate total payments received during a time period, and reconcile this with total sales.Cashiers60 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Determine proper storage methods, identification, and stock location, based on turnover, environmental factors, and physical capabilities of facilities.Stockers and Order Fillers49 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Requisition merchandise from supplier, based on available space, merchandise on hand, customer demand, or advertised specials.Stockers and Order Fillers37 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish credit policies and operating procedures.First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers33 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend disposal of excess, defective, or obsolete stock.Stockers and Order Fillers30 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Receive and count stock items, and record data manually or on computer.Stockers and Order Fillers27 million hours30% of the task within reach
- Compute and record totals of transactions.Cashiers25 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan budgets and authorize payments and merchandise returns.First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers24 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Food and Beverage Retailers (4451 and 4452 only) is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 23% of the paid hours in Food and Beverage Retailers (4451 and 4452 only) are within reach of AI models now and 23% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Food and Beverage Retailers (4451 and 4452 only) carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Cashiers (858,370 people, 19% of their time, about 330 million hours a year); Stockers and Order Fillers (655,900 people, 19% of their time, about 263 million hours a year); and First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (171,090 people, 49% of their time, about 175 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Food and Beverage Retailers (4451 and 4452 only) carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions (Cashiers, about 126 million hours a year); Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records (Cashiers, about 90 million hours a year); and Calculate total payments received during a time period, and reconcile this with total sales (Cashiers, about 60 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Food and Beverage Retailers (4451 and 4452 only) learn first?
- Among the 3,039,380 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (2,494,427 people); the conversations (1,331,020 people); and briefing a model and checking its drafts (1,061,980 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 77% of their working time stays with people, 12% becomes checking a model's work and 12% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Food and Beverage Retailers (4451 and 4452 only) (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 99% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.