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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Industry group, 4450A1

Food and Beverage Retailers (4451 and 4452 only)

3,075,680 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $39,460 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
20%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$35B

a year: 1.3 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 24%
  • 18%
  • 58%
2%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 24% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 20%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 1% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 3% within reacho3, April 2025: 9% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 11% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 13% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 13% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 14% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 15% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 19% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 20% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 28 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.

PeoplePay here
Cashiers858,37019%330 million$34K
Stockers and Order Fillers655,90019%259 million$36K
Customer Service Representatives99,44064%133 million$35K
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers171,09028%100 million$51K
Retail Salespersons143,13019%58 million$36K
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers34,94040%29 million$47K
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks14,32078%23 million$40K
Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks20,32053%22 million$42K
General and Operations Managers46,47023%22 million$77K
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers29,03035%21 million$50K
Pharmacy Technicians37,87026%20 million$41K
Fast Food and Counter Workers134,0907%18 million$35K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 125 smaller jobs (149,070 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers
    126 million hours100% of the task within reach
  2. Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers
    90 million hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Calculate total payments received during a time period, and reconcile this with total sales.Cashiers
    60 million hours70% of the task within reach
  4. Determine proper storage methods, identification, and stock location, based on turnover, environmental factors, and physical capabilities of facilities.Stockers and Order Fillers
    49 million hours80% of the task within reach
  5. Develop new recipes for baked goods.Bakers
    42 million hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Requisition merchandise from supplier, based on available space, merchandise on hand, customer demand, or advertised specials.Stockers and Order Fillers
    37 million hours100% of the task within reach
  7. Establish credit policies and operating procedures.First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
    33 million hours100% of the task within reach
  8. Recommend disposal of excess, defective, or obsolete stock.Stockers and Order Fillers
    30 million hours50% of the task within reach
  9. Receive and count stock items, and record data manually or on computer.Stockers and Order Fillers
    27 million hours30% of the task within reach
  10. Compute and record totals of transactions.Cashiers
    25 million hours100% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Next to this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works