First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
Directly supervise and coordinate the activities of production and operating workers, such as inspectors, precision workers, machine setters and operators, assemblers, fabricators, and plant and system operators. Excludes team or work leaders.
673,430 people do this job in the US. $74,450 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 62%
- 7%
- 30%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 29%. Today's estimate: 35%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 20 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan and develop new products and production processes.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 15% | 1 work day3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 5%Half by Oct 2027 | |
| Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.Done daily by most who do it. | 11% | 1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h | 57%Half by now | |
| Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.Done daily by most who do it. | 8% | 42 min17 min to 1.7 h | 98%Half by now | |
| Direct and coordinate the activities of employees engaged in the production or processing of goods, such as inspectors, machine setters, or fabricators.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 50 min25 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Observe work and monitor gauges, dials, and other indicators to ensure that operators conform to production or processing standards.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 50 min13 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Enforce safety and sanitation regulations.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h | 32%Half by Jan 2027 | |
| Inspect materials, products, or equipment to detect defects or malfunctions.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 38 min13 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Recommend or implement measures to motivate employees and to improve production methods, equipment performance, product quality, or efficiency.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | 51%Half by now | |
| Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | 77%Half by now | |
| Confer with management or subordinates to resolve worker problems, complaints, or grievances.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 50 min17 min to 2.1 h | Stays with people | |
| Confer with other supervisors to coordinate operations and activities within or between departments.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 38 min13 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers27% now, 57% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers42% now, 48% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand44% now, 50% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators51% now, 57% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Workers16% now, 24% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers47% now, 77% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).