First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand
In short: today's best AI models could do about 33% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 67% of the time, stays with people.
Directly supervise and coordinate the activities of helpers, laborers, or material movers, hand.
$62,890 a year (for the broader BLS group this job sits in).
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on4 h
- A person checks AI's work9 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people27 h
First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 4 hours, 9 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 27 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Estimate job requirements (about 4 h, a person checks); Schedule the crew (about 4 h); Help with budgets and policies (about 1 h, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 22%
- 11%
- 7%
- 27%
- 33%
Anthropic's data does not cover this job.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 33% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 25%. Today's estimate: 33%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.021% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 309th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 24 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.038% to 0.026% (released February and March 2025); 0.021% to 0.025% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.045% to 0.021% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.038% | 320 of 708 | 5 of 24 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.026% | 380 of 703 | 2 of 24 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.021% | 368 of 655 | 4 of 24 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.022% | 376 of 672 | 4 of 24 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.025% | 367 of 677 | 4 of 24 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.045% | 231 of 434 | 3 of 24 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.021% | 309 of 447 | 2 of 24 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 45% of this job's working time as physical work. For 27% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 3% in a purpose-built cell, 24% in a structured facility. 0.52 of 3, the 306th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 55%
- No robot shown 18%
- In a purpose-built cell 3%
- In a structured facility 24%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
66% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Work alongside the crew, the hands-on work, 17%
- Check the work, the hands-on work, 7%
- Solve work problems with the team, the in-person work, 6%
- Keep the site safe, the hands-on work, 6%
- Explain work orders to the crew, the in-person work, 4%
- Counsel employees, the in-person work, 4%
What becomes checking the machine
22% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 10% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Estimate job requirements, costly if wrong, 10%
- Help with budgets and policies, costly if wrong, 3%
- Schedule shipments, costly if wrong, 2%
- Keep work records, costly if wrong, 2%
- Resolve grievances, costly if wrong, 1%
- Arrange staff training, costly if wrong, 1%
What to learn
- The conversations. About 33% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- The hands-on craft. About 33% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 22% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- Running AI inside the business systems. About 11% of the time is work inside business systems, which a model can do only once it is connected: knowing the systems well enough to set that up and watch it.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 24 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perform the same work duties as those supervised, or perform more difficult or skilled tasks or assist in their performance.Hands-on work on the floor.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Stretch (Boston Dynamics) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 17% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Plan work schedules and assign duties to maintain adequate staff for effective performance of activities and response to fluctuating workloads.Building the schedule and telling the crew.Done daily by most who do it. | 12% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Systems 50%, documents 30%, in person 20% | 80%Desk part half by now |
| Estimate material, time, and staffing requirements for a given project, based on work orders, job specifications, and experience.Working the numbers from the order.Done daily by most who do it. | 10% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Documents 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Review work throughout the work process and at completion to ensure that it has been performed properly.Walking the job as it goes.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Collaborate with workers and managers to solve work-related problems.Conversations on the floor and with managers.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 33 min13 min to 1.3 h | In person 60%, conversation 40% | Stays with people |
| Maintain a safe working environment by monitoring safety procedures and equipment.Watching the floor and the equipment.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Resolve personnel problems, complaints, or formal grievances when possible, or refer them to higher-level supervisors for resolution.Conversations in person, with the record.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.1 h17 min to 2.5 h | In person 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Schedule times of shipment and modes of transportation for materials.Bookings in the system and calls with carriers.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 4% | 38 min13 min to 1.3 h | Systems 60%, conversation 40% | 60%Desk part half by now |
| Transmit and explain work orders to laborers.Telling the crew on the floor.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Assess training needs of staff and arrange for or provide appropriate instruction.Judging who needs what and setting the training up.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.1 h25 min to 2.5 h | In person 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Counsel employees in work-related activities, personal growth, or career development.One to one on the floor or in the office.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 50 min17 min to 1.7 h | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Provide assistance in balancing books, tracking, monitoring, or projecting a unit's budget needs, and in developing unit policies and procedures.Figures and drafts at the desk.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 100% | 99%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers47% now, 57% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers48% now, 54% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators45% now, 45% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers32% now, 32% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants32% now, 33% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers54% now, 58% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 33% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 34% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Estimate job requirements (100% of the task's time now); Schedule the crew (80% of the task's time now); and Help with budgets and policies (99% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Work alongside the crew; Check the work; and Solve work problems with the team. Together such tasks are about 50% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the conversations; the hands-on craft; and reviewing work you did not do yourself. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 66% of the working time stays with people, 22% becomes checking a model's work and 10% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.021% went to this job's tasks, the 309th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 24 tasks appeared. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 45% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 27% of the working time, 24% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.52 of 3. One example: Stretch for "work alongside the crew". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 24 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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