Industry group, 4921
Couriers and Express Delivery Services
925,330 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $59,390 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 297 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 18%
- 5%
- 76%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 15%. Today's estimate: 16%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 23 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light Truck Drivers | 280,350 | 11% | 65 million | $50K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 334,430 | 9% | 63 million | $45K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 99,980 | 14% | 28 million | $60K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 20,060 | 53% | 22 million | $53K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 16,730 | 51% | 18 million | $58K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 16,730 | 44% | 15 million | $58K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants | 16,730 | 37% | 13 million | $58K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 5,870 | 80% | 9.7 million | $52K |
| Cargo and Freight Agents | 9,770 | 45% | 9.1 million | $58K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 6,320 | 64% | 8.5 million | $48K |
| Office Clerks, General | 3,780 | 54% | 4.3 million | $49K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 4,240 | 43% | 3.8 million | $82K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 80 smaller jobs (42,670 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 100% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand47 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations.Light Truck Drivers28 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read work orders or receive oral instructions to determine work assignments or material or equipment needs.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand16 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Read maps and follow written or verbal geographic directions.Light Truck Drivers12 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Verify the contents of inventory loads against shipping papers.Light Truck Drivers10 million hours30% of the task within reach
- Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers8.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend and implement measures to improve worker motivation, work methods, or customer services.First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants6.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Turn in receipts and money received from deliveries.Light Truck Drivers6 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Report any mechanical problems encountered with vehicles.Light Truck Drivers5.4 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks5.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works