Light Truck Drivers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 11% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 89% of the time, stays with people.
Drive a light vehicle, such as a truck or van, with a capacity of less than 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW), primarily to pick up merchandise or packages from a distribution center and deliver. May load and unload vehicle.
983,300 people do this job in the US. $44,860 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work4 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people35 h
Light Truck Drivers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 4 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 35 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Keep vehicle logs and cargo records (about 2 h, a person checks); Read maps and follow directions (under an hour); Verify loads against shipping papers (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 4%
- 7%
- 2%
- 1%
- 86%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 11% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 11%. Today's estimate: 11%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 13 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 83% of this job's working time as physical work. For 82% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 1% in a purpose-built cell, 35% in a structured facility, 46% in any setting. 2.10 of 3, the 3rd highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 17%
- No robot shown 1%
- In a purpose-built cell 1%
- In a structured facility 35%
- In any setting 46%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
89% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Obey traffic laws, the hands-on work, 34%
- Drive light trucks and vans, the hands-on work, 19%
- Load and unload vehicles, the hands-on work, 18%
- Inspect and maintain the vehicle, the hands-on work, 5%
- Verify loads against shipping papers, the hands-on work, 4%
- Read maps and follow directions, the hands-on work, 2%
What becomes checking the machine
9% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 2% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Keep vehicle logs and cargo records, costly if wrong, 5%
- Verify loads against shipping papers, costly if wrong, 2%
- Turn in receipts and money, costly if wrong, 1%
- Report mechanical problems, costly if wrong, 0.9%
- Present bills and collect payment, costly if wrong, 0.5%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 86% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 13 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obey traffic laws and follow established traffic and transportation procedures.Driving by the rules of the road.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Waymo Driver (Jaguar I-Pace robotaxi) on DoorDash (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 34% | 50 min13 min to 3.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Drive vehicles with capacities under three tons to transport materials to and from specified destinations, such as railroad stations, plants, residences, offices, or within industrial yards.Driving the delivery route.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Waymo Driver (Jaguar I-Pace / Zeekr RT) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 19% | 1.3 h17 min to 3.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Load and unload trucks, vans, or automobiles.Moving packages by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Pickle Robot unloading system + AmbiStack (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 18% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Verify the contents of inventory loads against shipping papers.Counting what is on the truck, then matching it to the papers.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Pickle Robot Unload System + Ambi Robotics AmbiStack (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 13 min4 min to 38 min | Hands-on 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations.Entries in the log and delivery records.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 21 min8 min to 1.1 h | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Inspect and maintain vehicle supplies and equipment, such as gas, oil, water, tires, lights, or brakes, to ensure that vehicles are in proper working condition.A walk-around check of tires, lights, brakes and fluids.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, UVeye Automated Vehicle Inspection (AVI) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Read maps and follow written or verbal geographic directions.Working out the way, and driving it.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 8 min4 min to 21 min | Documents 50%, hands-on 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Turn in receipts and money received from deliveries.Handing in cash and paperwork, and logging it.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Loomis SafePoint Titan smart safe (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Hands-on 60%, systems 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Report any mechanical problems encountered with vehicles.A call to the base and a written defect report.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 8 min4 min to 17 min | Systems 50%, conversation 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Present bills and receipts and collect payments for goods delivered or loaded.Face to face at the door, with the receipt entry.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 8 min4 min to 17 min | In person 70%, systems 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Use and maintain the tools or equipment found on commercial vehicles, such as weighing or measuring devices.Hands-on work.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Tally (Simbe Robotics) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 1% | 17 min4 min to 38 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations to bases or other vehicles, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.A call or radio message to the base.Done daily by most who do it. | 1% | 7 min3 min to 17 min | Conversation 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Light Truck Drivers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 11% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 11% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Light Truck Drivers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Keep vehicle logs and cargo records (100% of the task's time now); Read maps and follow directions (50% of the task's time now); and Verify loads against shipping papers (30% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Light Truck Drivers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Obey traffic laws; Drive light trucks and vans; and Load and unload vehicles. Together such tasks are about 79% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Light Truck Drivers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and reviewing work you did not do yourself. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 89% of the working time stays with people, 9% becomes checking a model's work and 2% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Light Truck Drivers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Light Truck Drivers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 83% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 82% of the working time, 46% in any setting. Its index is 2.10 of 3. One example: Waymo Driver (Jaguar I-Pace robotaxi) on DoorDash for "obey traffic laws". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 13 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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