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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Light Truck Drivers

Drive a light vehicle, such as a truck or van, with a capacity of less than 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW), primarily to pick up merchandise or packages from a distribution center and deliver. May load and unload vehicle.

983,300 people do this job in the US. $44,860 a year.

now
12%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 12%
  • 0%
  • 88%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 12% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 4%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 12%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 2% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 4% within reacho3, April 2025: 8% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 9% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 10% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 10% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 11% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 11% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 12% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 12% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 13 tasks from .

TaskKind
Obey traffic laws and follow established traffic and transportation procedures.Done daily by most who do it. 34%50 min13 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Drive vehicles with capacities under three tons to transport materials to and from specified destinations, such as railroad stations, plants, residences, offices, or within industrial yards.Done daily by most who do it. 19%1.3 h17 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Load and unload trucks, vans, or automobiles.Done daily by most who do it. 18%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Verify the contents of inventory loads against shipping papers.Done daily by most who do it. 6%13 min4 min to 38 minStays with people
Maintain records, such as vehicle logs, records of cargo, or billing statements, in accordance with regulations.Done daily by most who do it. 5%21 min8 min to 1.1 h99%Half by now
Inspect and maintain vehicle supplies and equipment, such as gas, oil, water, tires, lights, or brakes, to ensure that vehicles are in proper working condition.Done daily by most who do it. 5%21 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Read maps and follow written or verbal geographic directions.Done daily by most who do it. 4%8 min4 min to 21 min100%Half by now
Turn in receipts and money received from deliveries.Done daily by most who do it.3%13 min4 min to 25 minStays with people
Report any mechanical problems encountered with vehicles.Done daily by most who do it. 2%8 min4 min to 17 min100%Half by now
Present bills and receipts and collect payments for goods delivered or loaded.Done daily by most who do it. 2%8 min4 min to 17 minStays with people
Use and maintain the tools or equipment found on commercial vehicles, such as weighing or measuring devices.Done daily by most who do it.1%17 min4 min to 38 minStays with people
Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations to bases or other vehicles, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.Done daily by most who do it.1%7 min3 min to 17 min100%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.