Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs
In short: today's best AI models could do about 13% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 87% of the time, stays with people.
Drive a motor vehicle to transport passengers on a planned or scheduled basis. May collect a fare. Includes nonemergency medical transporters and hearse drivers.
248,530 people do this job in the US. $37,290 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on3 h
- A person checks AI's work2 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people35 h
Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 3 hours, 2 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 35 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Write accident reports (about 1 h, a person checks); Arrange regular pickups (about 1 h); Keep first aid skills current (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 7%
- 6%
- 8%
- 10%
- 68%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 13% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 13%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 26 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0075% to 0.014% (released February and March 2025); 0.0078% to 0.014% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0075% | 563 of 708 | 4 of 26 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.014% | 465 of 703 | 6 of 26 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0078% | 481 of 655 | 4 of 26 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.011% | 457 of 672 | 4 of 26 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.014% | 448 of 677 | 5 of 26 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 26 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 26 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 84% of this job's working time as physical work. For 71% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 5% in a purpose-built cell, 5% in a structured facility, 61% in any setting. 1.97 of 3, the 4th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 16%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 5%
- In a structured facility 5%
- In any setting 61%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
87% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Drive to the traffic laws, the hands-on work, 18%
- Drive passengers, the hands-on work, 10%
- Run the scheduled route, the hands-on work, 7%
- Pick up passengers, the hands-on work, 6%
- Transport passengers with special needs, the hands-on work, 5%
- Keep first aid skills current, the in-person work, 5%
What becomes checking the machine
6% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 7% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Write accident reports, costly if wrong, 3%
- Keep first aid skills current, costly if wrong, 2%
- Report needed repairs, costly if wrong, 0.5%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 68% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- The conversations. About 19% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 26 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.Driving within the rules of the road.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Waymo Driver / Waymo One robotaxi (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 18% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Drive shuttle busses, limousines, company cars, or privately owned vehicles to transport passengers.Driving the vehicle.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Waymo Driver (Jaguar I-PACE robotaxi) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 38 min17 min to 2.5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Pick up and drop off passengers at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.Driving the route to time, with passengers boarding at each stop.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Waymo One (Jaguar I-Pace / Zeekr driverless fleet) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 29 min13 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 80%, in person 20% | Stays with people |
| Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Refresher courses and reading; the knowing is the driver's own.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | In person 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Pick up or meet passengers according to requests, appointments, or schedules.Driving to the pickup and meeting the passenger.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Waymo One airport service (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Hands-on 80%, in person 20% | Stays with people |
| Arrange to pick up particular customers or groups on a regular schedule.Calls with the customer and the schedule entered.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | Conversation 60%, systems 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Operate vehicles with specialized equipment, such as wheelchair lifts, to transport and secure passengers with special needs.Working the lift and securing the passenger, then driving.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 21 min8 min to 33 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.Walking round the vehicle checking tires, brakes, lights and fluids.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 21 min13 min to 33 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Perform errands for customers or employers, such as delivering or picking up mail and packages.Driving and carrying.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Moxi (Diligent Robotics) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Complete accident reports when necessary.Filling in the report.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 33 min17 min to 1.3 h | Documents 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.Working out the way, and driving it.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Documents 50%, hands-on 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Perform minor vehicle repairs, such as cleaning spark plugs, or take vehicles to mechanics for servicing.Small fixes by hand, and the trip to the shop.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in any setting, Waymo Driver (Jaguar I-Pace robotaxi fleet) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 38 min17 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 13% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 13% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Write accident reports (100% of the task's time now); Arrange regular pickups (40% of the task's time now); and Keep first aid skills current (30% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Drive to the traffic laws; Drive passengers; and Run the scheduled route. Together such tasks are about 76% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and signing off under your license. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 87% of the working time stays with people, 6% becomes checking a model's work and 7% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 84% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 71% of the working time, 61% in any setting. Its index is 1.97 of 3. One example: Waymo Driver / Waymo One robotaxi for "drive to the traffic laws". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 26 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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