Skip to content
STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
Menu

Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity

Drive bus or motor coach, including regular route operations, charters, and private carriage. May assist passengers with baggage. May collect fares or tickets.

159,240 people do this job in the US. $59,050 a year.

now
11%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 11%
  • 0%
  • 89%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 11% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 11%. Today's estimate: 11%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 2% within reacho3, April 2025: 7% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 8% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 9% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 9% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 10% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 10% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 11% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 11% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 14 tasks from .

TaskKind
Drive vehicles over specified routes or to specified destinations according to time schedules, complying with traffic regulations to ensure that passengers have a smooth and safe ride.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 63%1.3 h38 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Handle passenger emergencies or disruptions.Done daily by most who do it. 6%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.Done daily by most who do it. 5%17 min8 min to 38 min100%Half by now
Maintain cleanliness of bus or motor coach.Done daily by most who do it. 5%25 min13 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Report delays or accidents.Done daily by most who do it. 4%13 min4 min to 38 min99%Half by now
Assist passengers, such as elderly or individuals with disabilities, on and off bus, ensure they are seated properly, help carry baggage, and answer questions about bus schedules or routes.Done daily by most who do it. 3%6 min3 min to 13 minStays with people
Park vehicles at loading areas so that passengers can board.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 3%3 min2 min to 8 minStays with people
Inspect vehicles and check gas, oil, and water levels prior to departure.Done daily by most who do it. 3%13 min8 min to 25 minStays with people
Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilating systems for passenger comfort.Done daily by most who do it. 2%4 min2 min to 8 minStays with people
Read maps to plan bus routes.Done daily by most who do it.2%17 min8 min to 33 min100%Half by now
Load and unload baggage in baggage compartments.Done daily by most who do it.2%21 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Collect tickets or cash fares from passengers.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 1%2 min1 min to 4 minStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).