Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
In short: today's best AI models could do about 7% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 93% of the time, stays with people.
Drive bus or motor coach, including regular route operations, charters, and private carriage. May assist passengers with baggage. May collect fares or tickets.
159,240 people do this job in the US. $59,050 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work3 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people37 h
Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 3 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 37 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Record fares and keep the log (about 2 h, a person checks); Report delays and accidents (under an hour, a person checks); Read maps to plan routes (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 1%
- 6%
- 3%
- 8%
- 82%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 7% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 7%. Today's estimate: 7%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 14 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 88% of this job's working time as physical work. For 79% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 5% in a purpose-built cell, 73% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 1.54 of 3, the 18th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 13%
- No robot shown 9%
- In a purpose-built cell 5%
- In a structured facility 73%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
93% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Drive the route, the hands-on work, 63%
- Handle emergencies and disruptions, the in-person work, 6%
- Keep the bus clean, the hands-on work, 5%
- Assist passengers on and off, the in-person work, 3%
- Report delays and accidents, the conversation, 3%
- Park at loading areas, the hands-on work, 3%
What becomes checking the machine
6% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Record fares and keep the log, costly if wrong, 5%
- Report delays and accidents, costly if wrong, 1%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 82% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 14 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drive vehicles over specified routes or to specified destinations according to time schedules, complying with traffic regulations to ensure that passengers have a smooth and safe ride.Driving the bus on the road to the schedule.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Karsan Autonomous e-ATAK / flowride.ai (line 533, DAM Shuttles) (ADASTEC / Karsan / DAM Shuttles) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 63% | 1.3 h38 min to 3.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Handle passenger emergencies or disruptions.Dealing with the passengers involved, and acting at the scene.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | In person 70%, hands-on 30% | Stays with people |
| Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.Receipts and the log book kept.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Maintain cleanliness of bus or motor coach.Cleaning the coach.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Report delays or accidents.Radio to dispatch, with the report filed.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 13 min4 min to 38 min | Conversation 70%, systems 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Assist passengers, such as elderly or individuals with disabilities, on and off bus, ensure they are seated properly, help carry baggage, and answer questions about bus schedules or routes.Helping people board and seat, carrying bags, and answering questions.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, QUANTUM Automatic Wheelchair Securement Station (Q'STRAINT) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 6 min3 min to 13 min | In person 50%, hands-on 50% | Stays with people |
| Park vehicles at loading areas so that passengers can board.Positioning the bus at the stop.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Perrone Robotics TONY-retrofitted CapMetro 40-ft battery-electric bus (CapMetro YARD program) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 3 min2 min to 8 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Inspect vehicles and check gas, oil, and water levels prior to departure.Walking round the bus and checking fluids.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 13 min8 min to 25 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilating systems for passenger comfort.Controls on the bus.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, ZF HVAC Climate Control System (bus) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 4 min2 min to 8 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Read maps to plan bus routes.Reading the map; the knowing is the driver's own.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 17 min8 min to 33 min | Documents 50%, in person 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Load and unload baggage in baggage compartments.Baggage handled by hand.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Vanderlande BAGLOAD (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Collect tickets or cash fares from passengers.Taking fares at the door.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 1% | 2 min1 min to 4 min | Hands-on 70%, in person 30% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 7% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 7% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Record fares and keep the log (100% of the task's time now); Report delays and accidents (30% of the task's time now); and Read maps to plan routes (50% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Drive the route; Handle emergencies and disruptions; and Keep the bus clean. Together such tasks are about 89% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and signing off under your license. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 93% of the working time stays with people, 6% becomes checking a model's work and 1% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 88% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 79% of the working time, 1% in any setting. Its index is 1.54 of 3. One example: ZF HVAC Climate Control System (bus) for "regulate heating and lighting". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 14 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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