Industry group, 4852
Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation
15,360 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $51,990 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 6.1 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 24%
- 4%
- 72%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 19 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity | 8,610 | 11% | 2 million | $47K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 570 | 80% | 943,739 | $47K |
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 610 | 74% | 933,837 | $35K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 270 | 64% | 361,670 | $39K |
| Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs | 500 | 28% | 292,240 | $37K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 140 | 78% | 225,971 | $43K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 177 | 51% | 187,026 | $61K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 177 | 44% | 161,991 | $61K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants | 177 | 37% | 135,115 | $61K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 120 | 43% | 106,330 | $45K |
| General and Operations Managers | 190 | 23% | 90,106 | $104K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 120 | 35% | 86,362 | $63K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 11 smaller jobs (690 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 94% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity925,348 hours100% of the task within reach
- Report delays or accidents.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity686,982 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance349,324 hours100% of the task within reach
- Read maps to plan bus routes.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity344,207 hours100% of the task within reach
- Oversee all communications within specifically assigned territories.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance236,737 hours100% of the task within reach
- Make and confirm reservations for transportation and accommodations, using telephones, faxes, mail, and computers.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks193,403 hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor personnel or equipment locations and utilization to coordinate service and schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance158,657 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare customer invoices and accept payment.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks136,942 hours100% of the task within reach
- Schedule or dispatch workers, work crews, equipment, or service vehicles to appropriate locations, according to customer requests, specifications, or needs, using radios or telephones.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance123,125 hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with assistance in preparing required travel documents and forms.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks109,015 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- School and Employee Bus Transportation216,510 people18% now, 20% by 2028
- Taxi and Limousine Service117,670 people27% now, 40% by 2028
- Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation111,560 people30% now, 34% by 2028
- Urban Transit Systems47,340 people17% now, 22% by 2028
- Charter Bus Industry24,070 people18% now, 22% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works