Subsector, 485
Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation
532,510 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $57,090 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 247 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 28%
- 4%
- 68%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 20% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 32 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs | 103,380 | 28% | 60 million | $39K |
| Bus Drivers, School | 147,850 | 17% | 53 million | $50K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 14,260 | 80% | 24 million | $45K |
| Taxi Drivers | 40,880 | 20% | 17 million | $42K |
| Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity | 56,310 | 11% | 13 million | $51K |
| School Bus Monitors | 37,190 | 14% | 11 million | $36K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 6,840 | 64% | 9.2 million | $39K |
| Office Clerks, General | 6,680 | 54% | 7.5 million | $45K |
| General and Operations Managers | 9,710 | 23% | 4.6 million | $97K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 4,280 | 43% | 3.8 million | $101K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2,360 | 78% | 3.8 million | $48K |
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 2,140 | 74% | 3.3 million | $39K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 102 smaller jobs (25,820 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Bus Drivers, School17 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Arrange to pick up particular customers or groups on a regular schedule.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs14 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete accident reports when necessary.Taxi Drivers13 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record bus routes.Bus Drivers, School12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.Bus Drivers, School9.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance8.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete accident reports when necessary.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs7.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Write and submit reports that include data such as the number of passengers or trips, hours worked, mileage driven, or fuel consumed.School Bus Monitors7.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs7 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- School and Employee Bus Transportation216,510 people18% now, 20% by 2028
- Taxi and Limousine Service117,670 people27% now, 40% by 2028
- Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation111,560 people30% now, 34% by 2028
- Urban Transit Systems47,340 people17% now, 22% by 2028
- Charter Bus Industry24,070 people18% now, 22% by 2028
- Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation15,360 people20% now, 24% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works