Industry group, 4854
School and Employee Bus Transportation
216,510 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $51,020 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 82 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 20%
- 1%
- 79%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 18%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 10 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bus Drivers, School | 142,090 | 17% | 51 million | $50K |
| School Bus Monitors | 35,140 | 14% | 10 million | $36K |
| Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs | 10,970 | 28% | 6.4 million | $43K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 2,490 | 80% | 4.1 million | $53K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,830 | 54% | 2.1 million | $48K |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,130 | 23% | 1 million | $85K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 2,260 | 14% | 644,010 | $52K |
| Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity | 1,270 | 11% | 287,934 | $48K |
| Passenger Attendants | 1,050 | 5% | 111,384 | $31K |
| Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists | 6,170 | 0% | 0 | $60K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 39 smaller jobs (10,000 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 100% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Bus Drivers, School16 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record bus routes.Bus Drivers, School11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.Bus Drivers, School8.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Write and submit reports that include data such as the number of passengers or trips, hours worked, mileage driven, or fuel consumed.School Bus Monitors6.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.Bus Drivers, School6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.Bus Drivers, School4.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Talk to children's parents or guardians about problematic behaviors, emotional or developmental problems, or related issues.School Bus Monitors3.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration.Bus Drivers, School3.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.Bus Drivers, School2.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Taxi and Limousine Service117,670 people27% now, 40% by 2028
- Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation111,560 people30% now, 34% by 2028
- Urban Transit Systems47,340 people17% now, 22% by 2028
- Charter Bus Industry24,070 people18% now, 22% by 2028
- Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation15,360 people20% now, 24% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works