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Bus Drivers, School

Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting.

402,930 people do this job in the US. $47,920 a year.

now
17%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 17%
  • 0%
  • 83%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 17% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 17%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 2% within reacho3, April 2025: 8% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 10% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 12% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 12% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 13% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 14% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 17% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 17% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 17 tasks from .

TaskKind
Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.Done daily by most who do it. 22%50 min25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.Done daily by most who do it. 17%50 min25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.Done daily by most who do it. 16%50 min25 min to 2.1 hStays with people
Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.Done daily by most who do it. 8%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.Done daily by most who do it. 6%17 min8 min to 38 minStays with people
Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Done daily by most who do it. 5%50 min25 min to 2.5 h95%Half by now
Keep bus interiors clean for students.Done daily by most who do it. 5%25 min13 min to 38 minStays with people
Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.Done daily by most who do it. 4%21 min13 min to 33 minStays with people
Record bus routes.Done daily by most who do it. 4%25 min13 min to 50 min100%Half by now
Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.Done daily by most who do it. 3%17 min8 min to 38 min100%Half by now
Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort.Done daily by most who do it. 2%8 min4 min to 13 minStays with people
Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.Done daily by most who do it. 2%13 min4 min to 25 min100%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).