Bus Drivers, School
Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting.
402,930 people do this job in the US. $47,920 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 17%
- 0%
- 83%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 17%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 17 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.Done daily by most who do it. | 22% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.Done daily by most who do it. | 17% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.Done daily by most who do it. | 16% | 50 min25 min to 2.1 h | Stays with people | |
| Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.Done daily by most who do it. | 8% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | 95%Half by now | |
| Keep bus interiors clean for students.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 21 min13 min to 33 min | Stays with people | |
| Record bus routes.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 8 min4 min to 13 min | Stays with people | |
| Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).