Bus Drivers, School
In short: today's best AI models could do about 10% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 90% of the time, stays with people.
Drive a school bus to transport students. Ensure adherence to safety rules. May assist students in boarding or exiting.
402,930 people do this job in the US. $47,920 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on3 h
- A person checks AI's work1 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people36 h
Bus Drivers, School, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 3 hours, 1 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 36 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Record bus routes (about 2 h); Submit trip and mileage reports (about 1 h); Keep first aid skills current (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 3%
- 7%
- 2%
- 18%
- 69%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 10% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 10%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 17 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0048% to 0.0074% (released February and March 2025); 0.0052% to 0.01% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0048% | 612 of 708 | 2 of 17 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0074% | 542 of 703 | 3 of 17 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0052% | 528 of 655 | 2 of 17 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0091% | 491 of 672 | 2 of 17 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.01% | 497 of 677 | 3 of 17 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 17 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 17 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 82% of this job's working time as physical work. For 71% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 35% in a purpose-built cell, 31% in a structured facility, 6% in any setting. 1.14 of 3, the 70th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 18%
- No robot shown 10%
- In a purpose-built cell 35%
- In a structured facility 31%
- In any setting 6%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
89% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Drive to the traffic laws, the hands-on work, 22%
- Run the pickup and drop off route, the hands-on work, 17%
- Drive the school bus, the hands-on work, 16%
- Keep order on the bus, the in-person work, 8%
- Keep students safe at stops, the hands-on work, 6%
- Clean the bus interior, the hands-on work, 5%
What becomes checking the machine
2% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 8% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Keep first aid skills current, costly if wrong, 2%
- Report student misbehavior, costly if wrong, 0.6%
What to learn
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- The hands-on craft. About 69% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- The conversations. About 20% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 17 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.Driving the bus within the rules of the road.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in any setting, Waymo Driver (rider-only robotaxi service) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 22% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.Driving the route to time, with students boarding at each stop.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, HKIA Automated People Mover (Hong Kong International Airport) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 17% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 80%, in person 20% | Stays with people |
| Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.Driving students between home, school and events.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, WeRide Robobus at Resorts World Sentosa (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 16% | 50 min25 min to 2.1 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.Dealing with students on board while driving.Done daily by most who do it. | 8% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.Watching the door and the street as students get on and off.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, WeRide Robobus (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Hands-on 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Refresher courses and reading; the knowing is the driver's own.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | In person 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Keep bus interiors clean for students.Sweeping and wiping down the bus.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Downer/IISRI autonomous rollingstock floor cleaning robot (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 38 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.Walking round the bus checking tires, brakes, lights and fluids.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 21 min13 min to 33 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Record bus routes.Route entries on the sheet or the system.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.Filling in the trip sheet or the system.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort.Setting the controls on the bus.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Waymo One (Jaguar I-Pace / Waymo Driver) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 8 min4 min to 13 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.Working out the way, and driving it.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Documents 50%, hands-on 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Bus Drivers, School is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 10% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 10% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Bus Drivers, School come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Record bus routes (100% of the task's time now); Submit trip and mileage reports (100% of the task's time now); and Keep first aid skills current (30% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Bus Drivers, School stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Drive to the traffic laws; Run the pickup and drop off route; and Drive the school bus. Together such tasks are about 84% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Bus Drivers, School learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are judgment where errors are severe; the hands-on craft; and signing off under your license. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 89% of the working time stays with people, 2% becomes checking a model's work and 8% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Bus Drivers, School?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Bus Drivers, School?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 82% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 71% of the working time, 6% in any setting. Its index is 1.14 of 3. One example: Waymo Driver (rider-only robotaxi service) for "drive to the traffic laws". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 17 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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