Industry group, 6244
Child Care Services
1,004,990 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $41,140 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 307 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 21%
- 17%
- 63%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 10% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 15%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 21 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education | 347,720 | 13% | 95 million | $37K |
| Childcare Workers | 269,970 | 14% | 76 million | $34K |
| Education and Childcare Administrators, Preschool and Daycare | 60,540 | 12% | 15 million | $58K |
| Office Clerks, General | 11,850 | 54% | 13 million | $38K |
| Teaching Assistants, Preschool, Elementary, Middle, and Secondary School, Except Special Education | 70,375 | 8% | 12 million | $35K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers | 10,150 | 37% | 7.8 million | $44K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 8,580 | 43% | 7.6 million | $42K |
| Teaching Assistants, Special Education | 70,375 | 5% | 7.2 million | $35K |
| Child, Family, and School Social Workers | 9,600 | 35% | 7 million | $48K |
| Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria | 20,620 | 16% | 6.8 million | $35K |
| Social and Human Service Assistants | 6,360 | 44% | 5.8 million | $44K |
| General and Operations Managers | 12,070 | 23% | 5.7 million | $76K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 114 smaller jobs (48,290 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Adapt teaching methods and instructional materials to meet students' varying needs and interests.Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education69 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform general personnel functions, such as supervision, training, and scheduling.Childcare Workers33 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Create developmentally appropriate lesson plans.Childcare Workers26 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform general administrative tasks, such as taking attendance, editing internal paperwork, and making phone calls.Childcare Workers16 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain accurate and complete student records as required by laws, district policies, and administrative regulations.Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education15 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare reports on students and activities as required by administration.Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education14 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Review and evaluate new and current programs to determine their efficiency, effectiveness, and compliance with state, local, and federal regulations and recommend any necessary modifications.Education and Childcare Administrators, Preschool and Daycare11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep records on individual children, including daily observations and information about activities, meals served, and medications administered.Childcare Workers9.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Communicate with children's parents or guardians about daily activities, behaviors, and related issues.Childcare Workers8.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine the scope of educational program offerings and prepare drafts of program schedules and descriptions to estimate staffing and facility requirements.Education and Childcare Administrators, Preschool and Daycare8.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works