Sector, 62
Health Care and Social Assistance
24,031,380 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $71,770 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 14 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 39%
- 9%
- 52%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 22% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 26%. Today's estimate: 28%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 74% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 877,840 | 87% | 1.6 billion | $46K |
| Registered Nurses | 2,895,620 | 21% | 1.3 billion | $98K |
| Personal Care Aides | 2,099,850 | 17% | 738 million | $36K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 394,100 | 83% | 680 million | $40K |
| Medical Assistants | 773,550 | 41% | 663 million | $46K |
| Home Health Aides | 2,099,850 | 14% | 625 million | $36K |
| Nursing Assistants | 1,336,230 | 15% | 422 million | $41K |
| Nurse Practitioners | 296,210 | 64% | 394 million | $132K |
| Office Clerks, General | 274,960 | 58% | 333 million | $44K |
| Billing and Posting Clerks | 175,780 | 77% | 280 million | $48K |
| Mental Health Counselors | 202,405 | 65% | 272 million | $59K |
| Social and Human Service Assistants | 281,780 | 44% | 256 million | $45K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 467 smaller jobs (6,119,000 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses809 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Work with individuals, groups, or families to plan or implement programs designed to improve the overall health of communities.Registered Nurses396 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide patients and families with emotional support and instruction in areas such as caring for infants, preparing healthy meals, living independently, or adapting to disability or illness.Home Health Aides376 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants352 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain accurate, detailed reports and records.Registered Nurses332 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Participate in case reviews, consulting with the team caring for the client, to evaluate the client's needs and plan for continuing services.Personal Care Aides298 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records of patient care, condition, progress, or problems to report and discuss observations with supervisor or case manager.Home Health Aides250 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with communication assistance, typing their correspondence or obtaining information for them.Personal Care Aides231 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare and maintain records of client progress and services performed, reporting changes in client condition to manager or supervisor.Personal Care Aides213 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate office equipment, such as voice mail messaging systems, and use word processing, spreadsheet, or other software applications to prepare reports, invoices, financial statements, letters, case histories, or medical records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants196 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works