Nurse Practitioners
In short: today's best AI models could do about 46% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 54% of the time, stays with people.
Diagnose and treat acute, episodic, or chronic illness, independently or as part of a healthcare team. May focus on health promotion and disease prevention. May order, perform, or interpret diagnostic tests such as lab work and x rays. May prescribe medication. Must be registered nurses who have specialized graduate education.
323,040 people do this job in the US. $132,300 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work18 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people21 h
Nurse Practitioners, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 18 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 21 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Maintain safety and infection procedures (about 3 h, a person checks); Reach a diagnosis (about 3 h, a person checks); Develop treatment plans (about 2 h, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 38%
- 9%
- 3%
- 40%
- 10%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 46% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 4%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 42%. Today's estimate: 46%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.12% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 151st largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 4 of its 27 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.15% to 0.15% (released February and March 2025); 0.17% to 0.16% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.12% to 0.12% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.15% | 116 of 708 | 10 of 27 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.15% | 112 of 703 | 9 of 27 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.17% | 108 of 655 | 8 of 27 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.15% | 107 of 672 | 9 of 27 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.16% | 110 of 677 | 7 of 27 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.12% | 144 of 434 | 4 of 27 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.12% | 151 of 447 | 4 of 27 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 20% of this job's working time as physical work. For 0% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere. 0.00 of 3.
- Not physical 80%
- No robot shown 20%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
53% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Treat complex and emergency cases, the in-person work, 7%
- Perform physical exams, the hands-on work, 5%
- Treat acute illness and injury, the in-person work, 5%
- Advise patients on staying healthy, the in-person work, 4%
- Maintain safety and infection procedures, the in-person work, 4%
- Coordinate care and support staff, the in-person work, 4%
What becomes checking the machine
44% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 2% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Maintain safety and infection procedures, severe if wrong, 8%
- Reach a diagnosis, a licensed person signs, 6%
- Develop treatment plans, a licensed person signs, 6%
- Record care plans and prognoses, severe if wrong, 5%
- Order and read diagnostic tests, a licensed person signs, 3%
- Treat primary care conditions, a licensed person signs, 2%
What to learn
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- The conversations. About 43% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 38% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 27 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain departmental policies and procedures in areas such as safety and infection control.Writing the procedures and seeing them followed on the unit.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 12% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 70%, in person 30% | 70%Desk part half by now |
| Diagnose or treat complex, unstable, comorbid, episodic, or emergency conditions in collaboration with other health care providers as necessary.At the bedside with the patient and the team.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | In person 50%, hands-on 30%, conversation 20% | Stays with people |
| Analyze and interpret patients' histories, symptoms, physical findings, or diagnostic information to develop appropriate diagnoses.Weighing the history, the exam and the results.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 6% | 25 min13 min to 1.1 h | Documents 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Develop treatment plans, based on scientific rationale, standards of care, and professional practice guidelines.Working out the plan from the findings and the guidelines.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 6% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Documents 80%, systems 20% | 100%Half by now |
| Treat or refer patients for primary care conditions, such as headaches, hypertension, urinary tract infections, upper respiratory infections, and dermatological conditions.The visit, and the prescription or referral.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | In person 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Perform routine or annual physical examinations.Examining the patient, with the questions asked as it goes.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 33 min17 min to 1.1 h | Hands-on 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Supervise or coordinate patient care or support staff activities.Directing the staff on the unit, with the chart.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 50 min13 min to 1.7 h | In person 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Diagnose or treat acute health care problems, such as illnesses, infections, or injuries.Examining and treating the patient in the room.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 1.1 h | In person 60%, hands-on 40% | Stays with people |
| Maintain complete and detailed records of patients' health care plans and prognoses.The plan and the outlook written into the chart.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 5% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Systems 70%, documents 30% | 100%Half by now |
| Read current literature, talk with colleagues, or participate in professional organizations or conferences to keep abreast of developments in nursing.Reading and conferences; the knowing is the practitioner's own.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | In person 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Order, perform, or interpret the results of diagnostic tests, such as complete blood counts (CBCs), electrocardiograms (EKGs), and radiographs (x-rays).Ordering in the system, reading the results, some tests done by hand.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 4% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Documents 40%, systems 40%, hands-on 20% | 80%Desk part half by now |
| Provide patients with information needed to promote health, reduce risk factors, or prevent disease or disability.Talking with the patient in the room.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Nurse Practitioners is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 46% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 46% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Nurse Practitioners come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Maintain safety and infection procedures (70% of the task's time now); Reach a diagnosis (100% of the task's time now); and Develop treatment plans (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Nurse Practitioners stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Treat complex and emergency cases; Perform physical exams; and Treat acute illness and injury. Together such tasks are about 29% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Nurse Practitioners learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are judgment where errors are severe; signing off under your license; and reviewing work you did not do yourself. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 53% of the working time stays with people, 44% becomes checking a model's work and 2% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Nurse Practitioners?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.12% went to this job's tasks, the 151st largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 4 of its 27 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 9%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Nurse Practitioners?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 20% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 0% of the working time. Its index is 0.00 of 3. A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 27 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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