Family Medicine Physicians
In short: today's best AI models could do about 38% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 50% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 50% of the time, stays with people.
Diagnose, treat, and provide preventive care to individuals and families across the lifespan. May refer patients to specialists when needed for further diagnosis or treatment.
107,510 people do this job in the US. $244,180 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work15 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet5 h
- Stays with people20 h
Family Medicine Physicians, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 15 hours become checking its work, 5 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 20 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Order and interpret tests to diagnose (about 4 h, a person checks); Plan health programs (about 3 h, a person checks); Prescribe or administer treatment (about 2 h, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 40%
- 11%
- 13%
- 29%
- 7%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 38% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 30%. Today's estimate: 38%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.016% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 337th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 12 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.031% to 0.028% (released February and March 2025); 0.0047% to 0.023% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.013% to 0.016% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.031% | 360 of 708 | 6 of 12 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.028% | 371 of 703 | 7 of 12 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0047% | 538 of 655 | 4 of 12 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.021% | 377 of 672 | 6 of 12 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.023% | 383 of 677 | 8 of 12 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.013% | 331 of 434 | 2 of 12 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.016% | 337 of 447 | 2 of 12 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 34% of this job's working time as physical work. For 0% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere. 0.00 of 3.
- Not physical 66%
- No robot shown 34%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
50% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Plan health programs, the conversation, 13%
- Explain procedures and results, the in-person work, 10%
- Advise on diet, activity and prevention, the in-person work, 6%
- Prescribe or administer treatment, the hands-on work, 4%
- Direct clinical staff, the in-person work, 4%
- Monitor patients and reevaluate treatment, the in-person work, 4%
What becomes checking the machine
50% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Plan health programs, costly if wrong, 20%
- Order and interpret tests to diagnose, a licensed person signs, 11%
- Prescribe or administer treatment, a licensed person signs, 4%
- Record patient information, severe if wrong, 4%
- Monitor patients and reevaluate treatment, a licensed person signs, 4%
- Direct clinical staff, severe if wrong, 3%
What to learn
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- The conversations. About 43% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 40% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 12 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan, implement, or administer health programs or standards in hospitals, businesses, or communities for prevention or treatment of injury or illness.Programs planned on paper, with conversations to run them.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 33% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days | Documents 60%, conversation 40% | 24%Desk part half by Jan 2027 |
| Order, perform, and interpret tests and analyze records, reports, and examination information to diagnose patients' condition.Tests ordered and read, with the diagnosis worked out.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 14% | 29 min13 min to 1.3 h | Documents 60%, systems 20%, hands-on 20% | 80%Desk part half by now |
| Explain procedures and discuss test results or prescribed treatments with patients.Discussing results and treatments with the patient.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 10% | 21 min8 min to 38 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Prescribe or administer treatment, therapy, medication, vaccination, and other specialized medical care to treat or prevent illness, disease, or injury.Treatment given by hand, or prescribed and entered for the pharmacy.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Hands-on 50%, systems 30%, documents 20% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Monitor patients' conditions and progress and reevaluate treatments as necessary.Seeing the patient and reading the record to adjust the treatment.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 8% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Documents 50%, in person 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, students, assistants, specialists, therapists, and other medical staff.Leading the nurses and staff in the clinic, with the planning behind it.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 7% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | In person 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Collect, record, and maintain patient information, such as medical history, reports, or examination results.Taking the history from the patient and charting it.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 6% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Systems 60%, in person 40% | 60%Desk part half by now |
| Advise patients and community members concerning diet, activity, hygiene, and disease prevention.Advice to patients in the room.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 6% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Coordinate work with nurses, social workers, rehabilitation therapists, pharmacists, psychologists, and other health care providers.Conversation with the care team, around the chart.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 3% | 17 min8 min to 50 min | In person 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Refer patients to medical specialists or other practitioners when necessary.The referral decided, entered and explained to the patient.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 3% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Systems 40%, documents 30%, in person 30% | 70%Desk part half by now |
| Prepare government or organizational reports which include birth, death, and disease statistics, workforce evaluations, or medical status of individuals.Birth, death and disease reports written and filed.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 1% | 1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h | Documents 70%, systems 30% | 99%Half by now |
| Train residents, medical students, and other health care professionals.Teaching in the clinic and at the bedside.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 0.2% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | In person 80%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Family Medicine Physicians is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 38% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 50% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (47% to 50% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Family Medicine Physicians come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Order and interpret tests to diagnose (80% of the task's time now); Plan health programs (24% of the task's time now, 59% by the end of 2028); and Prescribe or administer treatment (50% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Family Medicine Physicians stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Explain procedures and results; and Advise on diet, activity and prevention. Together such tasks are about 16% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Family Medicine Physicians learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are judgment where errors are severe; reviewing work you did not do yourself; and signing off under your license. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 50% of the working time stays with people, 50% becomes checking a model's work and 0% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Family Medicine Physicians?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.016% went to this job's tasks, the 337th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 12 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Family Medicine Physicians?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 34% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 0% of the working time. Its index is 0.00 of 3. A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 12 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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