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Family Medicine Physicians

Diagnose, treat, and provide preventive care to individuals and families across the lifespan. May refer patients to specialists when needed for further diagnosis or treatment.

107,510 people do this job in the US. $244,180 a year.

now
33%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 64%
  • 13%
  • 23%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 64% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 4%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 31%. Today's estimate: 33%.

0%10%20%30%40%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 4% within reacho3, April 2025: 17% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 21% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 26% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 26% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 28% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 28% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 31% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 33% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 12 tasks from .

TaskKind
Plan, implement, or administer health programs or standards in hospitals, businesses, or communities for prevention or treatment of injury or illness.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 33%6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days6%Half by Jan 2028
Order, perform, and interpret tests and analyze records, reports, and examination information to diagnose patients' condition.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 14%29 min13 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Explain procedures and discuss test results or prescribed treatments with patients.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task.10%21 min8 min to 38 min100%Half by now
Prescribe or administer treatment, therapy, medication, vaccination, and other specialized medical care to treat or prevent illness, disease, or injury.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 9%17 min8 min to 38 minStays with people
Monitor patients' conditions and progress and reevaluate treatments as necessary.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 8%17 min8 min to 38 min100%Half by now
Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, students, assistants, specialists, therapists, and other medical staff.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Collect, record, and maintain patient information, such as medical history, reports, or examination results.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task.6%13 min4 min to 25 min100%Half by now
Advise patients and community members concerning diet, activity, hygiene, and disease prevention.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 6%13 min4 min to 25 minStays with people
Coordinate work with nurses, social workers, rehabilitation therapists, pharmacists, psychologists, and other health care providers.Done several times a day by most who do it. 3%17 min8 min to 50 min100%Half by now
Refer patients to medical specialists or other practitioners when necessary.Done several times a day by most who do it. 3%13 min4 min to 25 min100%Half by now
Prepare government or organizational reports which include birth, death, and disease statistics, workforce evaluations, or medical status of individuals.Done more than weekly by most who do it.1%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h65%Half by now
Train residents, medical students, and other health care professionals.Done yearly or less by most who do it. 0.2%50 min25 min to 2.5 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).