Emergency Medicine Physicians
In short: today's best AI models could do about 42% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 58% of the time, stays with people.
Make immediate medical decisions and act to prevent death or further disability. Provide immediate recognition, evaluation, care, stabilization, and disposition of patients. May direct emergency medical staff in an emergency department.
32,880 people do this job in the US. $335,550 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on17 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people23 h
Emergency Medicine Physicians, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 17 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 23 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Analyze records, examination information, or test results to diagnose medical conditions (about 4 h); Collect and record patient information, such as medical history or examination results, in electronic or handwritten medical records (about 4 h); Evaluate patients' vital signs or laboratory data to determine emergency intervention needs and priority of treatment (about 3 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 42%
- 13%
- 45%
Anthropic's data does not cover this job.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 9%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 42%. Today's estimate: 42%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.095% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 168th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 17 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.079% to 0.095% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 17 |
| Released March 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 17 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 17 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 17 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 17 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.079% | 184 of 434 | 2 of 17 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.095% | 168 of 447 | 2 of 17 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 37% of this job's working time as physical work. For 0% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere. 0.00 of 3.
- Not physical 63%
- No robot shown 37%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 17 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Select, request, perform, or interpret diagnostic procedures, such as laboratory tests, electrocardiograms, emergency ultrasounds, and radiographs.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 11% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Conduct primary patient assessments that include information from prior medical care.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 11% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Analyze records, examination information, or test results to diagnose medical conditions.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 11% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Collect and record patient information, such as medical history or examination results, in electronic or handwritten medical records.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 9% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Stabilize patients in critical condition.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Evaluate patients' vital signs or laboratory data to determine emergency intervention needs and priority of treatment.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 7% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Monitor patients' conditions, and reevaluate treatments, as necessary.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Stays with people | |
| Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 6% | 13 min4 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Communicate likely outcomes of medical diseases or traumatic conditions to patients or their representatives.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 5% | 13 min4 min to 33 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Perform emergency resuscitations on patients.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Consult with hospitalists and other professionals, such as social workers, regarding patients' hospital admission, continued observation, transition of care, or discharge.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 4% | 13 min4 min to 33 min | Stays with people | |
| Select and prescribe medications to address patient needs.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 4% | 8 min4 min to 21 min | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Emergency Medicine Physicians is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 42% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 42% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Emergency Medicine Physicians come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Analyze records, examination information, or test results to diagnose medical conditions (100% of the task's time now); Collect and record patient information, such as medical history or examination results, in electronic or handwritten medical records (100% of the task's time now); and Evaluate patients' vital signs or laboratory data to determine emergency intervention needs and priority of treatment (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Emergency Medicine Physicians stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Select, request, perform, or interpret diagnostic procedures, such as laboratory tests, electrocardiograms, emergency ultrasounds, and radiographs; Conduct primary patient assessments that include information from prior medical care; and Stabilize patients in critical condition. Together such tasks are about 58% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Emergency Medicine Physicians?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.095% went to this job's tasks, the 168th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 17 tasks appeared. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Emergency Medicine Physicians?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 37% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 0% of the working time. Its index is 0.00 of 3. A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 17 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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